Marvin Mims — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Marvin Mims has logged three consecutive seasons with a rushing role layered on top of his receiving work, giving him a dual-threat floor that most depth receivers do not carry. His 2024 season was his clearest peak: 52 targets, 39 receptions, 503 receiving yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns, with 13 rush attempts and 42 rush yards on top of that. He followed it in 2025 with 51 targets, 37 receptions, 322 receiving yards, and added a rushing touchdown. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 45.3 targets, 32.7 receptions, 400.7 receiving yards, 2.7 receiving touchdowns, 11.3 rush attempts, and 50 rush yards per season. The rushing usage is consistent enough to be structural, not situational. For a drafter building out the back of a roster, that kind of multi-dimensional role is worth tracking.

What the model projects

The projection for Mims is 54.5 half-PPR fantasy points this season. His draft value is -74.2, placing him WR90 and #271 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player sitting well below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the headline number; the band tells a different story about variance, and that story is wide.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band on Mims is one of the wider ones his tier produces. The p10 floor is 1.9 points, meaning the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons essentially produce nothing. The p25 sits at 15.4 points and the median simulated season lands at 36.2 points, both well short of the 54.5 point projection, which signals the distribution is right-skewed. The p75 reaches 69.4 points and the p90 climbs to 112.2 points. That top-decile outcome, 112.2 points, is more than double the projection and represents a genuinely usable fantasy season. The gap between the floor and the ceiling here is extreme: a drafter who rostered Mims in ten different leagues would see outcomes ranging from near-zero to a productive contributor. His 2024 touchdown pace (6 receiving scores) is the clearest path to the upper band; his 2025 line (1 receiving touchdown on a nearly identical target share) illustrates how quickly that ceiling closes.

How to draft him

Mims does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms that feed this data. In a 12-team half-PPR league, he is a late-roster or waiver-wire consideration rather than a pick you plan around. His value case is almost entirely contingent on touchdown variance: the three-year average of 2.7 receiving touchdowns per season masks a single outlier year (6 in 2024) that inflates the mean. Roster him in deeper leagues or as a speculative stash if your format rewards the kind of multi-role usage Denver has given him, but enter with clear eyes about the -74.2 draft value and the 36.2-point median outcome.

He has averaged 45.3 targets per season over the 2023-2025 window, with 33 targets in 2023, 52 in 2024, and 51 in 2025. The 2024 and 2025 seasons show a consistent workload in the low-50s.

Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 11.3 rush attempts and 50 rush yards per season. In 2025 he added a rushing touchdown on 12 attempts for 78 yards, his most productive rushing season of the three.

The p90 outcome from the simulated season band is 112.2 half-PPR points. His 2024 season, when he caught 6 receiving touchdowns on 52 targets, is the clearest real-world example of what that upper range looks like.

Mims is WR90 and #271 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -74.2. That places him below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format. He projects at 54.5 points but carries a median simulated outcome of 36.2 points, making him a depth or speculative add rather than a planned starter.