#24 overall · BUF · 314.9 projected half-PPR pts · +53.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 25.3
Josh Allen — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Josh Allen is QB1 and sits #24 overall in a 12-team half-PPR format. The case starts with his legs. Over the last three seasons he has averaged 108.3 rush attempts and 544.7 rush yards per year, with 13.7 rushing touchdowns annually. That floor is real and it is consistent. In 2025 he posted career highs in rush attempts (112) and rush yards (579) while throwing for 25 touchdowns and adding 14 more on the ground. The three-year average of 27.3 passing touchdowns and 3,901.7 passing yards tells you the arm production is durable too. No other position generates fantasy points from as many sources simultaneously, and Allen stacks passing, rushing, and receiving touchdowns in the same stat line — he caught a touchdown pass in 2024. The draftValue of +53.6 points above replacement level at the position is the number that matters: he projects well clear of what a replacement-level QB delivers.
What the model projects
The projection is 314.9 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 314.8, essentially identical to the point estimate, which signals a well-centered distribution. His three-year average of 27.3 passing touchdowns, 13.7 rushing touchdowns, 3,901.7 passing yards, and 544.7 rushing yards per season is the historical foundation underneath that number. The draftValue of +53.6 reflects how far above replacement level that production sits. Tier 5 is his home in the overall rankings, and at QB1 he is the top-ranked quarterback in this format. His bye is Week 7.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 579 | 385 | 4306 | 29 | 18 | 111 | 524 | 15 | 6 | 404.6 |
| 2024 | 483 | 307 | 3731 | 28 | 6 | 102 | 531 | 12 | 4 | 383.0 |
| 2025 | 460 | 319 | 3668 | 25 | 10 | 112 | 579 | 14 | 7 | 372.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 507.3 | 337 | 3901.7 | 27.3 | 11.3 | 108.3 | 544.7 | 13.7 | 5.7 | 392.7 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated outcome band is wide, which is worth understanding before you draft him. At the 10th percentile, a bad season finishes at 157.6 points. At the 25th percentile it is 256.4. The median is 314.8. The 75th percentile reaches 372.1, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons land at 415.8 points or better. The distance from the 10th to the 90th percentile is 258.2 points, a substantial spread. The downside scenario at p10 is a significant drop from the projection, so drafters should enter with eyes open. The upside scenario at p90 is elite. His three-year fumble average of 5.7 per season (3.0 fumbles lost per year on average, with 4 lost in 2023 alone) is a real source of variance in that lower tail. The interception line improved sharply from 18 in 2023 to 6 in 2024 before rising to 10 in 2025, adding another variable to track.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Allen at an average pick of 25.3, which works out to pick 3.01 in a 12-team snake draft — the first pick of the third round. His overallRank is #24 overall and his positionRank is QB1. Plan your draft around the reality that he will be gone by the turn of round three. If you want QB1, you need to be ready to spend that third-round pick. His Week 7 bye falls in the middle of the season, so roster a backup capable of covering that week.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
He is QB1 and #24 overall with a draftValue of +53.6 points above replacement level. The projection is 314.9 half-PPR points. Whether that surplus justifies a third-round pick is a roster construction decision, but the market's current average draft position is 25.3 — pick 3.01 in a 12-team draft — so that is the price the market is setting.
It matters a great deal. Over the last three seasons he has averaged 108.3 rush attempts, 544.7 rush yards, and 13.7 rushing touchdowns per year. In 2025 he set three-year highs with 112 rush attempts and 579 rush yards. That rushing floor is a consistent, multi-year pattern and a core part of why the projection sits at 314.9 points.
The 10th-percentile simulated season finishes at 157.6 half-PPR points, and the 25th percentile is 256.4. The band is wide: 258.2 points separate the p10 from the p90 outcome of 415.8. His three-year average of 5.7 fumbles per season and an interception line that has ranged from 6 to 18 over the last three years are the clearest historical sources of variance in that lower tail.
Based on a median across two platforms, Allen is being drafted at pick 25.3 on average, which is pick 3.01 in a 12-team snake draft. If you want him, plan to use your first pick of round three. Waiting longer than that carries real risk of missing him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.