#21 overall · LAC · 184.8 projected half-PPR pts · +56.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 17.9
Omarion Hampton — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Omarion Hampton's 2025 season was a single-year debut: 124 rush attempts, 545 rush yards, 32 receptions on 35 targets, 192 receiving yards, and five total touchdowns. The three-year aggregate matches the single-season line exactly, confirming this is a first-year player with no prior NFL volume. That is the entire track record, and it is enough to land him at RB14 with a draft value of +56.9 points above replacement. He is in Tier 4 of the overall rankings, sitting at #21 overall. The case is straightforward: a young back with a receiving role already established, positive replacement-level surplus, and a full workload ahead of him.
What the model projects
The projection is 184.8 half-PPR points for the 2026 season. That is the headline number. His draft value of +56.9 reflects meaningful production above the replacement-level baseline at running back in a 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week is Week 7, which is worth noting for roster management purposes.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 124 | 545 | 4 | 35 | 32 | 192 | 1 | 1 | 119.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 124 | 545 | 4 | 35 | 32 | 192 | 1 | 1 | 119.7 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is consistent with a player whose NFL sample is limited to one season. The p10 floor is 88.0 points, meaning 10 percent of simulated seasons end at or below that total. The p25 sits at 139.5. The median simulated season lands at 196.3 points, slightly above the 184.8 point estimate. The p75 is 244.7 and the p90 ceiling is 277.9, meaning 10 percent of simulated seasons reach that level or higher. The distance from the p10 to the p90 is nearly 190 points. Drafters should price in that variance: the upside is real, and so is the floor risk.
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our projection
How to draft him
Hampton is currently being drafted at pick 17.9 on average, which works out to the 6th pick of the 2nd round in a 12-team snake draft, per the market median across two platforms. Our rankings place him at #21 overall and RB14. Plan to spend a second-round pick if you want him; that is the window the market is setting. His Week 7 bye is early enough that it should not disrupt a playoff push, but it is worth accounting for when building your roster depth.
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Questions drafters ask
His entire NFL history is one season: 124 rush attempts, 545 rush yards, 4 rushing touchdowns, 32 receptions on 35 targets, 192 receiving yards, and 1 receiving touchdown in 2025. The three-year aggregate is identical, confirming 2025 was his only NFL season.
He is ranked #21 overall and RB14, sitting in Tier 4. His projected points are 184.8 in half-PPR, with a draft value of +56.9 points above replacement level.
The simulated season band runs from 88.0 points at the p10 to 277.9 at the p90. The median simulated season is 196.3 points. That is a spread of nearly 190 points between the bad-season floor and the great-season ceiling, reflecting the variance that comes with a one-year NFL sample.
The market ADP is 17.9, which translates to the 6th pick of Round 2 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the average pick being spent on him across two platforms, so plan to use a second-round selection if he is your target.
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Beyond the rankings
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Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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