#20 overall · NYJ · 185.4 projected half-PPR pts · +57.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 30.1
Breece Hall — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Breece Hall has been a three-down back for the Jets across three full seasons, and the volume has been consistent. He has averaged 225 rush attempts and 73 targets per season over that stretch, with 978.3 rushing yards and 474.7 receiving yards per year. In 2025 he posted a career-high 243 rush attempts and 1,065 rushing yards while adding a receiving line of 36 catches on 48 targets for 350 yards. The workload is real, the role is real, and the three-year averages back both up. At RB13 with a +57.6 draft value, he sits in Tier 4 of the overall rankings and projects above replacement level at the position.
What the model projects
The projection is 185.4 half-PPR points. That sits below his 2025 median simulated outcome of 196.9, so the point estimate and the band median are not the same number — report both honestly. The three-year per-season averages that feed into his profile: 225 rush attempts, 978.3 rushing yards, 4.7 rushing touchdowns, 56.3 receptions, 474.7 receiving yards, and 2.7 receiving touchdowns. Fumbles have been a recurring factor: 2 in 2023, 6 in 2024 (2 lost), and 2 in 2025 (2 lost), averaging 3.3 per season over the window. His bye is Week 13.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 223 | 994 | 5 | 95 | 76 | 591 | 4 | 2 | 250.5 |
| 2024 | 209 | 876 | 5 | 76 | 57 | 483 | 3 | 6 | 208.4 |
| 2025 | 243 | 1065 | 4 | 48 | 36 | 350 | 1 | 2 | 189.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 225 | 978.3 | 4.7 | 73 | 56.3 | 474.7 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 219.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 88.6 points — a significant downside. The 25th percentile is 140.2 points, and the median sits at 196.9. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 245.3 points and the 90th percentile reaches 278.5. That is a spread of roughly 190 points between a bad season and a great one, which reflects genuine variance in his profile. The fumble history is the clearest source of that downside risk: six fumbles in 2024 alone, and at least two in each of the three seasons on record. When the ball stays in his hands and the volume holds, the ceiling is substantial. When it does not, the floor is low.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Hall is #20 overall and RB13 in a 12-team half-PPR format. The market is currently drafting him at pick 30.1, which works out to the 3rd round, 6th pick in a 12-team snake draft (3.06). That is the pick you need to spend to get him. His Tier 4 placement means there is a cluster of similar value around him in the rankings, so the window to grab him is real but not infinite. Given the fumble history, the downside band, and the volume-dependent nature of his profile, know what you are buying before you commit the pick: a high-floor workload back with a wide outcome range and a documented ball-security concern.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 185.4 half-PPR points. The median simulated season outcome is 196.9, so the two numbers are close but not identical — the point estimate is 185.4.
It is consistent across all three seasons on record: 2 fumbles in 2023, 6 in 2024 (2 lost), and 2 in 2025 (2 lost), for a three-year average of 3.3 fumbles per season. The 2024 season stands out sharply. It is the primary driver of the wide downside band, which bottoms out at 88.6 points at the 10th percentile.
The market ADP is 30.1, which translates to pick 3.06 in a 12-team snake draft — the 6th pick of the third round. That is the current price across the platforms feeding this median.
Over the three seasons from 2023 to 2025, he has averaged 73 targets and 56.3 receptions per year. In 2023 he saw 95 targets and caught 76 passes. In 2025 that dropped to 48 targets and 36 receptions. The three-year average receiving yards per season is 474.7.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.