#25 overall · TB · 177.5 projected half-PPR pts · +50.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 46.3
Bucky Irving — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Bucky Irving's 2024 season is the foundation of the argument. He carried the ball 207 times for 1,122 rushing yards, caught 47 of 52 targets for 392 receiving yards, and scored 8 rushing touchdowns. That is a three-phase workload: volume carrier, reliable check-down option, and red-zone finisher. His catch rate on those targets was exceptional, and the receiving work is not incidental to his value. The three-year averages back the picture up: 190 rush attempts, 43.5 targets, and 38.5 receptions per season. Irving has shown he can handle a full backfield role and contribute in the passing game, which is the profile that holds up in half-PPR scoring.
What the model projects
The projection is 177.5 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits alongside a draft value of +50.1, meaning Irving projects meaningfully above replacement level at the running back position. He ranks #25 overall and RB15, placing him in Tier 6. The 2025 season showed a reduced stat line: 173 rush attempts, 588 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 3 receiving touchdowns, and 30 receptions on 35 targets. The three-year averages, which blend that 2025 output with the stronger 2024 campaign, land at 855 rushing yards and 334.5 receiving yards per season. The projection at 177.5 points reflects that full body of work. Irving's bye week is Week 10.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 207 | 1122 | 8 | 52 | 47 | 392 | — | 2 | 220.9 |
| 2025 | 173 | 588 | 1 | 35 | 30 | 277 | 3 | 1 | 123.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 190 | 855 | 4.5 | 43.5 | 38.5 | 334.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 174.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is the honest reality for a running back with this kind of variance in his recent history. The p10 floor is 80.8 points, a season where almost nothing goes right. The p25 sits at 132.3, a below-average but survivable outcome. The median simulated season lands at 189.0 points, above the 177.5 point estimate. The p75 is 237.3 and the p90 reaches 270.5, a ceiling that reflects what a full-workload, high-efficiency season looks like. The gap between the p10 and p90 is nearly 190 points, so drafters need to be comfortable with that spread. The upside is real; so is the floor risk.
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Irving at an average pick of 46.3, which works out to pick 4.10 in a 12-team snake draft. That is where you need to be ready to spend a pick if you want him. He ranks #25 overall and RB15 in this model. Going into the fourth round, the question is whether the workload profile and the receiving floor give you enough confidence to commit at that slot. The 2024 season shows what the ceiling looks like when everything clicks. The 2025 numbers are a reminder that the floor is real. If you are building a roster that needs a back with pass-catching upside and a history of high-volume usage, Irving is the name to have circled heading into Round 4.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he saw 52 targets, caught 47 of them, and gained 392 receiving yards. In 2025 he had 35 targets, 30 receptions, and 277 receiving yards. His three-year average is 43.5 targets and 38.5 receptions per season, making him a consistent pass-catching option out of the backfield.
The simulated outcome band runs from 80.8 points at the p10 to 270.5 at the p90. The median simulated season is 189.0 points. That is a wide spread, so drafters should plan for meaningful variance in either direction.
The market average is pick 46.3, or 4.10 in a 12-team snake draft. If you want him, that is the round where you need to be prepared to use your pick.
In 2024 he posted 207 rush attempts, 1,122 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 47 receptions for 392 yards. In 2025 those numbers came down to 173 rush attempts, 588 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, and 30 receptions for 277 yards, though he added 3 receiving touchdowns. The three-year averages blend both seasons at 190 rush attempts and 855 rushing yards per year.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.