#161 overall · PHI · 83.4 projected half-PPR pts · -32.3 Draft Value
Dallas Goedert — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Dallas Goedert has been one of the more consistent receiving tight ends in the league over the past three seasons. His three-year averages tell the story plainly: 72.3 targets, 53.7 receptions, 559.7 receiving yards, and 5.3 receiving touchdowns per season. The 2025 campaign was his best in the touchdown column, with 11 receiving scores on 82 targets and 60 receptions for 591 yards. That kind of target volume at the position is real, and the touchdown rate in 2025 gives the projection a legitimate floor to build from. His 2023 line was nearly identical in volume to 2025, which speaks to a durable role in Philadelphia's offense when he is on the field.
What the model projects
The projection is 104.4 half-PPR fantasy points. Goedert sits at TE12 and #115 overall in Tier 9. His draft value is -15.9, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That is the honest read on where he sits in the rankings right now.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 83 | 59 | 592 | 3 | — | 106.8 |
| 2024 | 52 | 42 | 496 | 2 | 2 | 82.6 |
| 2025 | 82 | 60 | 591 | 11 | — | 155.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 72.3 | 53.7 | 559.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 114.7 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The bottom 10% of outcomes lands at 49.2 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 79.6. The median simulated season comes in at 114.9 points, which is modestly above the 104.4 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 137.3 and the top 10% of outcomes climbs to 164.8. That upper band is meaningful: a season in the 90th percentile would represent a genuinely productive fantasy tight end. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is over 115 points, so the range here is substantial. Goedert's 2024 season, which produced only 42 receptions and 496 yards on 52 targets with 2 fumbles, is a reminder that the floor is real. His 2025 rebound shows the ceiling is too.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Goedert going at pick 121.6, which works out to the 11th round, 2nd pick in a 12-team draft (based on a median across two platforms). Our rankings place him at #115 overall. He carries a negative draft value at TE12, so the position rank alone is not a reason to force the pick. His bye is Week 10. If you are building toward a tight end in the double-digit rounds, Goedert is the name to track at that range. The wide outcome band means the upside is real, but so is the downside, and the three-year history shows both versions of this player have existed recently.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The projection is 104.4 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks TE12 and #115 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -15.9 against a 12-team half-PPR replacement baseline.
The simulated season band runs from 49.2 points at the 10th percentile to 164.8 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 114.9 points. The spread is wide, reflecting meaningful variance in how his season could go.
Market ADP puts him at pick 121.6, or round 11, pick 2 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our overall rank is #115, so he is being drafted in roughly that range of the draft.
Over the past three seasons his averages are 72.3 targets, 53.7 receptions, 559.7 receiving yards, and 5.3 receiving touchdowns. His 2025 and 2023 seasons were nearly identical in volume, though 2024 was a notable step down with only 52 targets and 42 receptions.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.