#527 overall · CAR · 6.6 projected half-PPR pts · -103.6 Draft Value
Jonathon Brooks — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jonathon Brooks is a Carolina running back whose entire professional statistical record fits in a single sentence: 9 rush attempts for 22 yards and 3 receptions for 23 yards, all accumulated in 2024. The three-year aggregate is identical, meaning 2024 is the only season of NFL production on file. That is a thin resume, and any honest case for drafting him starts there. The case rests entirely on what he might become rather than what he has done, which is exactly the kind of late-draft speculation that belongs in the final rounds of a snake draft.
What the model projects
The projection is 65.1 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. His draft value is -63.7, placing him RB55 and #246 overall in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 55.3 points, slightly below the 65.1 point estimate. His bye week is Week 5.
| Car | Rush yds | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 6.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 9 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 6.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 6.7 points, which is effectively a non-factor campaign. The 25th percentile is 24.1 points, still a minimal fantasy contribution. The median sits at 55.3 points. Move to the optimistic side and the 75th percentile reaches 97.0 points, with the top 10% of simulated seasons finishing at or above 139.7 points. That upper tail is the only scenario in which Brooks returns meaningful fantasy value. The distance between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, 6.7 to 139.7, reflects how uncertain this projection is. He is a high-variance, low-floor asset.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Brooks going at pick 88.3, which works out to round 8, pick 4 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model ranks him #246 overall. If you want him, round 8 is when the market says you need to spend a pick. Given the floor, he functions as a late-roster speculative add rather than a building block. His Week 5 bye is worth noting when constructing your roster around him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
His entire NFL statistical record is 9 rush attempts for 22 yards and 3 receptions on 3 targets for 23 yards, all from the 2024 season. The three-year aggregate is the same, meaning 2024 is the only season with any production on file.
The projection is 65.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -63.7, which is below replacement level at running back in a 12-team half-PPR format, placing him RB55 and #246 overall in Tier 9.
The band runs from 6.7 points at the 10th percentile to 139.7 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 55.3 points. The 75th percentile is 97.0 points, so a strong outcome is possible, but the floor is extremely low.
His market ADP is 88.3, which translates to round 8, pick 4 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick range where you would need to spend to secure him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.