#509 overall · NYJ · 63.0 projected half-PPR pts · -102.9 Draft Value
Greg Zuerlein — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
In 2023, Zuerlein was one of the more productive kickers in the league. He connected on 35 of 38 field goal attempts, missing just two, and hit 13 kicks from 40-49 yards plus five from 50 or beyond. That kind of range and volume is exactly what fantasy kicker scoring rewards. The 3-year aggregate through 2025 shows 22 made field goals per season on average against 26.5 attempts, with only 3.5 misses per year. The accuracy profile over that window is real.
What the model projects
The projection is 63.0 half-PPR fantasy points. Zuerlein ranks K40 at the position and #464 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -111.0, which places him below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The 2024 season was a sharp step back from 2023: 9 made field goals on 15 attempts, with 5 misses and only 1 kick from 40-49 yards. The 3-year aggregate reflects both the strong 2023 and the diminished 2024, landing at 22 made field goals and 14 extra points per season on average.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 35 | 2 | 15 | 141.0 |
| 2024 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 36.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 22 | 3.5 | 14 | 10.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide and skewed. The p10 and p25 are both 0.0 points, meaning in the bottom quarter of simulated seasons he scores nothing. The median simulated season (p50) is 8.3 points. The p75 is 22.2 points. The p90 reaches 102.6 points, a figure that reflects the ceiling a high-volume, long-range kicker can produce when everything clicks. The distance between the median and the 90th percentile is the defining feature of this band: most simulated seasons land well below the projection, but the upside tail is substantial.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Zuerlein is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. In practice, that means he is available as a late-round or post-draft addition in most leagues. At K40 and #464 overall with a negative draft value, he is a speculative add rather than a planned pick. If you are targeting a kicker with demonstrated long-range ability and a strong recent accuracy record in a high-volume season, Zuerlein's 2023 line gives you a data point. The 2024 numbers and the band's heavy downside weight are the counterargument. Draft him only if you are comfortable with a floor that the model puts at zero in a meaningful share of simulated seasons.
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Questions drafters ask
His draft value is -111.0, placing him below replacement level at K40 and #464 overall in Tier 9. He is not being drafted consistently enough to carry a market ADP, so in most leagues he is available without spending a pick at all.
In 2023 he made 35 of 38 field goal attempts with 13 from 40-49 yards and 5 from 50-plus. In 2024 he made 9 of 15 attempts with just 1 from 40-49 yards and 5 misses. The 3-year aggregate through 2025 averages 22 made field goals and 14 extra points per season on 26.5 attempts.
The p10 and p25 are both 0.0 points. The median simulated season is 8.3 points. The p75 is 22.2 and the p90 reaches 102.6. The band is heavily skewed: most simulated seasons land well below the 63.0-point projection, with a significant upside tail at the top.
The 2023 profile is strong: 35 makes, only 2 misses, and 18 kicks from 40 yards or beyond. However, the 2024 season showed 5 misses on just 15 attempts and only 1 long-range make. The model's projection of 63.0 points and a median simulated outcome of 8.3 points reflect both seasons in the record.
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Beyond the rankings
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