#122 overall · IND · 96.8 projected half-PPR pts · -18.5 Draft Value
Josh Downs — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Josh Downs has been one of the more consistent target-earners at his position over the past three seasons. He has seen at least 88 targets in each year from 2023 through 2025, averaging 97.7 per season across that span. His reception totals have been equally steady: 68, 72, and 58 catches in those three years, averaging 66 per season. The touchdown rate ticked up in 2024 and held in 2025, with 5 and 4 receiving scores respectively after just 2 in 2023. That is a receiver who has demonstrated a reliable floor in volume and shown some upside in the end zone. For a drafter building depth in the middle rounds, that combination of target share and scoring consistency is the core of the argument.
What the model projects
The projection for Downs is 114.8 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -13.3, placing him #109 overall and WR48 in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection falls below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is close to his three-year average production, reflecting a receiver whose output has been range-bound rather than trending sharply in either direction.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 98 | 68 | 771 | 2 | — | — | 123.1 |
| 2024 | 107 | 72 | 803 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 147.5 |
| 2025 | 88 | 58 | 566 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 109.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 97.7 | 66 | 713.3 | 3.7 | 1 | 3.3 | 126.9 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The bottom 10% of outcomes lands at 41.2 points, a figure that reflects how badly a season can go for a receiver in this tier. The 25th percentile is 71.7 points. The median simulated season comes in at 109.3 points, close to but slightly below the 114.8 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 144.6 points, and the top 10% of outcomes climbs to 188.0 points. That upper band represents a meaningful step up from his recent history, while the lower band shows real downside risk. The spread from p10 to p90 is nearly 147 points, which is a wide range for a receiver projected at this level. Drafters should enter with eyes open to both ends of that distribution.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Downs at an average of pick 105.6, which works out to the 10th pick of the 9th round in a 12-team draft. The model has him at #109 overall and WR48. At his bye week of 13, roster management in the back half of the season is worth factoring into your planning. If you are targeting Downs as a depth piece or a streamer with a known target floor, Round 9 is when you would need to spend a pick to secure him. Given his negative draft value, he is best framed as a volume-based depth option rather than a difference-maker, and his roster spot should be sized accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
He has been targeted 98, 107, and 88 times in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, for a three-year average of 97.7 targets per season. That is a consistent workload at the position.
The model projects him at 114.8 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -13.3, which places him #109 overall and WR48 in Tier 9. A negative draft value means he projects below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The simulated season band runs from 41.2 points at the 10th percentile to 188.0 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 109.3 points. That is a spread of nearly 147 points from the bad end to the great end, indicating meaningful variance around the projection.
His market ADP is 105.6, which translates to the 10th pick of Round 9 in a 12-team draft. That is the window in which you would need to spend a pick to add him to your roster.
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Beyond the rankings
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