#53 overall · DEN · 143.5 projected half-PPR pts · +15.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 44.6
Jaylen Waddle — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jaylen Waddle has averaged 95.7 targets per season over the last three years, with a three-year average of 64.7 receptions and 889.3 receiving yards. He has shown he can operate as a high-volume target: in 2023 he pulled in 72 catches on 104 targets for 1,014 yards and 4 touchdowns. In 2025 he bounced back to 100 targets, 64 receptions, 910 yards, and a career-best 6 receiving touchdowns. The target volume is real and consistent. A draftValue of +15.4 means the projection puts him above replacement level at the position, and his Tier 8 placement reflects a player with a defined floor built on route-running and target share. His bye is Week 10, which is manageable in most formats.
What the model projects
The projection is 143.5 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That is the headline number. Waddle comes in at #53 overall and WR25, sitting in Tier 8 of the rankings. His draftValue is +15.4, placing him above the replacement-level baseline at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 104 | 72 | 1014 | 4 | 3 | 12 | — | 162.6 |
| 2024 | 83 | 58 | 744 | 2 | 4 | 12 | — | 116.6 |
| 2025 | 100 | 64 | 910 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 1 | 162.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 95.7 | 64.7 | 889.3 | 4 | 3 | 17.3 | 0.3 | 147.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the low end, the p10 sits at 66.9 points: a bottom-10% season looks like a significant step back from his recent averages. The p25 is 107.1 points, still a below-median outcome but a functional WR2/3 floor in most weeks. The median simulated season lands at 150.7 points, slightly above the 143.5 point projection. The p75 is 184.9 points and the p90 reaches 219.5 points, a top-10% outcome that would make him a weekly starter. The gap between the p10 and p90 is over 150 points, which signals meaningful season-to-season variance. His three-year history shows that kind of swing is not hypothetical: his receiving yards have ranged from 744 to 1,014 across the last three seasons.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently drafting Waddle at an average pick of 44.6, which works out to the 9th pick of the 4th round in a 12-team draft (4.09). That is the window you are working with. If you want him, you need to be prepared to spend a mid-fourth-round pick. Our rankings place him at #53 overall and WR25. Plan your first three rounds accordingly, and if Waddle is still on the list when you reach that fourth-round window, you have a decision to make. Given the variance in his band, he fits best as a WR3 or flex option on a roster that has secured more certain production earlier in the draft.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 143.5 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #53 overall and WR25, in Tier 8 of the rankings, with a draftValue of +15.4 above replacement level.
Over the last three seasons he has averaged 95.7 targets and 64.7 receptions per year. His target totals were 104 in 2023, 83 in 2024, and 100 in 2025, showing he has maintained a high-volume role.
In the bottom 10% of simulated seasons (p10) he finishes at 66.9 points. In the top 10% (p90) he reaches 219.5 points. The median simulated season is 150.7 points. The spread of more than 150 points between those extremes reflects real variance in his outcomes.
The market ADP is 44.6, which translates to pick 4.09 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, you should expect to spend a pick in that fourth-round range. Our ranking of #53 overall and WR25 is separate from that market figure; plan your roster construction in the first three rounds before committing to him there.
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Beyond the rankings
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