#100 overall · GB · 118.1 projected half-PPR pts · -10.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 92.9
Jayden Reed — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jayden Reed has back-to-back seasons of 793 and 857 receiving yards, with 8 and 6 receiving touchdowns respectively. He also adds a genuine rushing dimension: 11 carries for 119 yards in 2023, then 20 carries for 163 yards and a rushing touchdown in 2024. Over the three-year window from 2023 to 2025, he averages 63.7 targets, 46 receptions, 619 receiving yards, 5 receiving touchdowns, and 11.3 rush attempts per season. That dual-threat profile gives him multiple paths to fantasy production in any given week. His bye is Week 11.
What the model projects
The projection is 118.1 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 114.1 points, close to the point estimate. Reed sits at #100 overall and WR44, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -10.6, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 94 | 64 | 793 | 8 | 11 | 119 | 2 | — | 183.2 |
| 2024 | 75 | 55 | 857 | 6 | 20 | 163 | 1 | 1 | 169.5 |
| 2025 | 22 | 19 | 207 | 1 | 3 | 28 | — | — | 39.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 63.7 | 46 | 619 | 5 | 11.3 | 103.3 | 1 | 0.3 | 131.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 44.2 points. The 25th percentile is 75.8 points. The median is 114.1 points. The 75th percentile reaches 149.2 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 191.6 points. That is a spread of roughly 147 points between the p10 and p90, which reflects meaningful season-to-season variance. A strong outcome puts Reed in genuinely useful WR territory; a weak one leaves him well short of fantasy relevance.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 92.9, which works out to pick 8.09 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him. The model has him at #100 overall and WR44 in Tier 9, with a negative draft value. Drafters who want Reed should know that pick 8.09 is the going rate in current public drafts, and his ceiling band of 191.6 points represents the scenario where the investment pays off.
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Questions drafters ask
It adds a floor of sorts. Reed ran 11 times for 119 yards in 2023 and 20 times for 163 yards plus a rushing touchdown in 2024. The three-year average is 11.3 rush attempts and 103.3 rush yards per season. It is not a dominant rushing role, but it is consistent enough to show up in the stat line most years.
The p90 of the simulated season band is 191.6 half-PPR points, meaning roughly one in ten simulated seasons finishes there or higher. His best historical receiving season was 857 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2024, which provides a real-world reference point for what a strong year looks like.
Below. His draft value is -10.6 in a 12-team half-PPR format, which means the projection of 118.1 points falls short of replacement level at wide receiver. He is ranked WR44 and #100 overall in Tier 9.
Current market ADP is 92.9, which translates to pick 8.09 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. If you want him, that is roughly when you need to commit a pick.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
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