#132 overall · DET · 86.0 projected half-PPR pts · -24.2 Draft Value
Isiah Pacheco — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case starts with 2023. That season, Pacheco carried the ball 205 times for 935 yards and 7 rushing touchdowns, added 44 receptions on 49 targets for 244 receiving yards and 2 more scores, and lost just one fumble all year. That is a full-featured workhorse profile: volume, receiving work, and touchdown production in the same package. The three-year averages from 2023 through 2025 show 135.3 rush attempts, 30.3 targets, 569 rushing yards, and 3 rushing touchdowns per season, which reflects how much the 2023 peak pulls the composite upward. For a drafter willing to bet on a rebound toward that ceiling, the underlying skill set is documented.
What the model projects
The projection is 80.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at RB45 and #202 overall, placing Pacheco in Tier 9. His draft value is -47.3, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 76.7 points, close to the point estimate. The projection reflects a stat line that has contracted sharply from the 2023 peak: 83 rush attempts and 310 rushing yards in 2024, then 118 attempts and 462 yards in 2025, with just 1 rushing touchdown in each of those two seasons.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 205 | 935 | 7 | 49 | 44 | 244 | 2 | 1 | 191.9 |
| 2024 | 83 | 310 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 79 | — | — | 50.9 |
| 2025 | 118 | 462 | 1 | 26 | 19 | 101 | 1 | — | 77.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 135.3 | 569 | 3 | 30.3 | 25 | 141.3 | 1 | 0.3 | 107.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10% of simulated seasons (p10) lands at 12.4 points, essentially a non-factor campaign. The 25th percentile (p25) reaches 36.2 points, still well below usable fantasy production. The median (p50) is 76.7 points. From there the upside opens considerably: the 75th percentile (p25) reaches 119.3 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons (p90) hits 167.3 points. That 154.9-point spread between p10 and p90 signals a player whose season-to-season variance is substantial. The 2023 season demonstrates what the high end of that band can look like in practice; the 2024 and 2025 lines show what the low end has looked like recently.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Pacheco is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no draft-slot anchor to work from. At RB45 and #202 overall in Tier 9, he projects as a back whose value sits below replacement level in a standard 12-team half-PPR league. He is a late-roster or waiver-wire consideration rather than a pick you plan around. If you are targeting the p90 upside of 167.3 points, understand that the p10 floor of 12.4 points is equally real. His bye falls in Week 6, worth noting for roster management if he does earn a spot on your team.
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Questions drafters ask
At RB45 and #202 overall with a draft value of -47.3, the projection places him below replacement level at running back. He is a depth or late-roster add rather than a planned starter, though the p90 outcome of 167.3 points shows the ceiling is real if things break right.
Over the past two seasons he has averaged 135.3 rush attempts, 30.3 targets, 569 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns, and 1 receiving touchdown per year across the 2023-2025 three-year aggregate. The 2023 season alone accounted for 205 attempts, 935 yards, and 7 rushing scores, so the averages are heavily influenced by that one outlier year.
Very wide. The simulated season band runs from 12.4 points at the 10th percentile to 167.3 points at the 90th percentile, a spread of roughly 155 points. The median outcome is 76.7 points, close to the 80.2-point projection.
There is no market ADP available for Pacheco, meaning he is not being selected consistently enough across public 2026 drafts to establish a draft slot. He is effectively a free agent on the waiver wire rather than a pick you need to budget for in advance.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.