#932 overall · NYG · 95.6 projected half-PPR pts · -152.2 Draft Value
Jaxson Dart — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jaxson Dart is a dual-threat quarterback. His 2025 season produced 2,272 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, and 487 rushing yards on 86 attempts, with 9 rushing touchdowns added on top. That rushing production is the core of his fantasy appeal: nine scores on the ground give him a floor that pure pocket passers at this tier rarely carry. His 63.7 completion percentage (216 of 339) shows he was moving the chains through the air as well. The fumble exposure is real, five total with two lost, but the touchdown volume on the ground offsets a lot of that noise. If the rushing role holds, Dart has a path to relevance in deeper leagues and two-quarterback formats.
What the model projects
The projection is 222.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That lands him at #151 overall and QB17, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -31.1, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season comes in at 206.3 points, a touch below the point estimate. Those two numbers are close but not identical, and both are worth keeping in mind when setting expectations.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 339 | 216 | 2272 | 15 | 5 | 86 | 487 | 9 | 5 | 244.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 339 | 216 | 2272 | 15 | 5 | 86 | 487 | 9 | 5 | 248.6 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 80.3 points, a number that reflects how quickly a low-volume passing game can crater a fantasy line. The 25th percentile sits at 148.1 points, still a difficult weekly starter. The median is 206.3. Things get interesting in the upper half: the 75th percentile reaches 277.5 points and the top-10% threshold is 337.5 points. That 337.5 ceiling is meaningful for a quarterback at this price point. The spread from p10 to p90 runs 257.2 points, which signals genuine boom-or-bust variance. Dart is not a safe floor play; he is a high-variance one.
(bottom 10%)
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Dart going at pick 113.7, which works out to the 10th round, 6th pick in a 12-team draft (based on a median across two platforms). Our rankings place him at #151 overall. In a standard 12-team league, Dart is a late-draft or waiver-wire name. The place he earns a roster spot is in two-quarterback or superflex formats, where the positional scarcity changes the calculus entirely. His bye falls in Week 8, so plan your streaming options accordingly. Given the wide outcome band, treat him as a high-upside depth piece rather than a weekly anchor.
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Questions drafters ask
His projection of 222.8 points and a draft value of -31.1 put him below replacement level at quarterback in a 12-team half-PPR format, landing at QB17 and #151 overall. In a one-quarterback league he is a late-round depth option at best, with his value tied almost entirely to the rushing touchdown upside he showed in 2025 (nine scores on the ground).
The top-10% simulated season threshold is 337.5 half-PPR points. That is the number 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above, driven largely by his dual-threat profile: 487 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns in 2025 show what the upside looks like when the rushing role is fully engaged.
In 2025 he logged 86 rush attempts for 487 yards and 9 rushing touchdowns. Those are the only seasons in the three-year aggregate as well, meaning 2025 is the entirety of his NFL statistical record available here.
Market ADP has him going at pick 113.7, the equivalent of Round 10, Pick 6 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our rankings place him at #151 overall, so there is a gap between where the market is taking him and where the model ranks him. You can state both numbers plainly and plan your draft accordingly.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.