#936 overall · CLE · 88.1 projected half-PPR pts · -159.7 Draft Value
Deshaun Watson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
There is not a strong fantasy case for drafting Deshaun Watson in 2026. He sits at QB34 and #904 overall, deep in Tier 9, with a draftValue of -170.1. That number means the projection places him well below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His recent history reflects limited production: in 2023 he completed 105 of 171 pass attempts for 1,115 yards, 7 passing touchdowns, and 4 interceptions across a shortened sample, while adding 142 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown on 26 carries. In 2024 the passing volume ticked up slightly to 216 attempts, 137 completions, 1,148 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, with 148 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown on 31 carries. The three-year average across 2023-2025 settles at roughly 193.5 attempts, 121 completions, 1,131.5 passing yards, 6 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, and 3.5 interceptions per season. Fumbles have been a consistent concern: 4 in 2023, 5 in 2024, with 2 and 3 lost respectively, and a three-year average of 4.5 fumbles per season. The numbers are what they are, and they do not build a fantasy case at this stage.
What the model projects
The projection for Watson is 88.1 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That is the headline number. His draftValue of -170.1 reflects how far below the replacement-level quarterback threshold that projection sits. He carries a bye in Week 11. At QB34 and #904 overall in Tier 9, the rankings place him at the very back of the usable quarterback pool.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 171 | 105 | 1115 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 142 | 1 | 4 | 84.8 |
| 2024 | 216 | 137 | 1148 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 148 | 1 | 5 | 77.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 193.5 | 121 | 1131.5 | 6 | 3.5 | 28.5 | 145 | 1 | 4.5 | 86.3 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band for Watson is exceptionally wide and skewed toward the low end. The p10 outcome is 0.0 points, meaning the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produce essentially nothing. The p25 is 26.5 points and the median simulated season (p50) lands at just 43.7 points. The upside scenarios are more generous: the p75 reaches 118.7 points and the p90 climbs to 182.8 points. The gap between the median and the p90 is the defining feature of this band. A typical simulated season produces fewer than 44 points, but a top-10-percent outcome approaches 183. That spread reflects a situation where the most likely result is very limited fantasy production, but a small slice of outcomes looks meaningfully different. Drafters should weight the median, not the ceiling.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Watson is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to anchor to. At QB34 and #904 overall with a draftValue of -170.1, he projects as a below-replacement-level option. In a standard 12-team snake draft he is a late-round or undrafted consideration at best, and only in formats where a deep handcuff at quarterback has roster utility. His Week 11 bye is worth noting for scheduling purposes. The median simulated outcome of 43.7 points makes him a speculative add rather than a planned starter, and his three-year average of 4.5 fumbles per season adds another layer of floor risk. If he lands on a roster, it should be as a last-resort depth piece, not a drafted asset.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The projection places him at 88.1 fantasy points with a draftValue of -170.1, which is well below replacement level at quarterback. He ranks QB34 and #904 overall in Tier 9. The median simulated season is 43.7 points. He is not a player the rankings support drafting as a planned starter.
In 2023 he posted 1,115 passing yards, 7 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and 142 rushing yards on 26 carries. In 2024 he posted 1,148 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 148 rushing yards on 31 carries. The three-year average across 2023-2025 is roughly 1,131.5 passing yards, 6 passing touchdowns, 3.5 interceptions, and 145 rushing yards per season. Fumbles averaged 4.5 per season over that span.
The p90 simulated season, meaning the top 10 percent of outcomes, reaches 182.8 half-PPR points. The p75 is 118.7 points. Those are the upside scenarios the band captures. The median, however, is 43.7 points, and the p10 is 0.0, so the distribution is heavily skewed toward limited production.
Watson does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. There is no pick cost to report. Given his QB34 ranking and -170.1 draftValue, he would be a late-round or undrafted consideration in most 12-team formats.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.