#937 overall · ATL · 87.0 projected half-PPR pts · -160.8 Draft Value
Tua Tagovailoa — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case is thin, and the facts say so plainly. Tua Tagovailoa sits at QB25 and #244 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -67.8. That negative number means the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His 2023 season showed what a full workload looks like: 4,624 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and 560 attempts. That ceiling is real. The three-year averages across 2023-2025 settle at 3,383.7 passing yards, 22.7 passing touchdowns, and 447.7 attempts per season, which is a functional starter's volume. If the 2023 version shows up for a full slate of games, the projection can be beaten. That is the entire argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 186.1 half-PPR fantasy points. Over the three seasons on record, the stat lines have trended toward fewer attempts and fewer yards: 560 attempts and 4,624 yards in 2023, 399 attempts and 2,867 yards in 2024, 384 attempts and 2,660 yards in 2025. The three-year averages reflect that compression. Interceptions have been a consistent drag: 14 in 2023, 7 in 2024, 15 in 2025, averaging 12 per season. Fumbles have averaged 7.7 per season over the same window, with 5 lost in 2023 alone. The rushing contribution is modest: 55.3 yards per season on 24 attempts on average. The projection of 186.1 points sits in Tier 9 among all positions.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 560 | 388 | 4624 | 29 | 14 | 35 | 74 | 10 | 284.4 |
| 2024 | 399 | 291 | 2867 | 19 | 7 | 17 | 49 | 7 | 184.6 |
| 2025 | 384 | 260 | 2660 | 20 | 15 | 20 | 43 | 6 | 173.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 447.7 | 313 | 3383.7 | 22.7 | 12 | 24 | 55.3 | 7.7 | 219.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 53.6 points, a near-total collapse. The 25th percentile is 106.6 points. The median simulated season is 158.6 points, which is notably below the 186.1 point estimate, signaling meaningful upside skew in the distribution. The 75th percentile reaches 237.0 points and the 90th percentile hits 304.6 points. That top-decile outcome is a legitimate fantasy starter's season. The gap between the floor and the ceiling here is among the widest a drafter will encounter at the position. The interception and fumble history adds to that variance: in 2023, Tagovailoa lost 5 fumbles and threw 14 interceptions; in 2025, interceptions climbed back to 15. Turnover volume is a real lever on where any given season lands inside that band.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Tagovailoa is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to anchor to. In practice, that means he is available as a late-round or undrafted add in most public drafts. His rank is #244 overall and QB25, with a negative draft value, so the model does not see him as a value-adding starter in a 12-team half-PPR league. The sensible use case is as a deep bench quarterback or a streaming option in a single-QB format, rostered only after every position of need is addressed. His bye is Week 11. If you carry him, plan around that week accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
The model ranks him QB25 and #244 overall with a draft value of -67.8, which is below replacement level at the position. He is a depth or streaming option at best in this format, not a projected starter.
His three-year averages from 2023-2025 are 3,383.7 passing yards, 22.7 passing touchdowns, and 12 interceptions per season. The 2023 season (4,624 yards, 29 TDs, 560 attempts) shows the upside is real, but the 2024 and 2025 seasons both came in well below that volume. The projection of 186.1 points reflects that compressed recent baseline.
Very wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season is 53.6 points and the 90th percentile is 304.6 points. The median simulated season is 158.6 points, below the 186.1 point estimate. Turnover history, including 15 interceptions in 2025 and a three-year average of 7.7 fumbles per season, is a key driver of that variance.
Tagovailoa does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. He is effectively available as a late or undrafted addition in most public 2026 drafts.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.