#207 overall · LV · 63.5 projected half-PPR pts · -51.8 Draft Value
Jalen Nailor — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jalen Nailor's two most recent seasons tell a consistent story. In 2024 he caught 28 of 42 targets for 414 yards and 6 receiving touchdowns. In 2025 he caught 29 of 53 targets for 444 yards and 4 receiving touchdowns. The yardage and reception totals are nearly identical across both years, and the touchdown production is real: 10 receiving scores over those two seasons combined. For a receiver being drafted in the 14th round, that kind of touchdown floor is the entire argument. If the touchdowns keep coming at even a reduced rate, the production justifies the late-round cost.
What the model projects
The projection is 91.2 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That puts Nailor at WR68 and #175 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -37.6, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year averages reinforce the ceiling question: across 2023 through 2025, he averaged 20 receptions, 33.7 targets, 295.7 receiving yards, 3.3 receiving touchdowns, and 1.7 rush attempts per season. The rushing contribution is minimal, with 3 yards per season on average.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 6 | 3 | 29 | — | — | — | 4.4 |
| 2024 | 42 | 28 | 414 | 6 | 3 | -4 | 91.0 |
| 2025 | 53 | 29 | 444 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 84.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 33.7 | 20 | 295.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 59.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 20.2 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile reaches 42.7 points, still well below useful. The median simulated season is 75.4 points. The 75th percentile climbs to 111.4 points, and the 90th percentile reaches 161.9 points. That top-decile outcome is more than eight times the bottom-decile result, which reflects how heavily this profile depends on touchdown variance. When the touchdowns arrive, the season is usable. When they do not, the underlying target and yardage volume does not carry the fantasy line on its own.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Nailor going at pick 158.3, which works out to the 14th round, 2nd pick in a 12-team draft (based on two platforms). The model ranks him #175 overall. At that draft stage, roster spots are cheap and the downside of a miss is low. The question is whether you want to spend one of your final picks on a receiver whose median outcome is 75.4 points but whose 90th-percentile ceiling reaches 161.9. His bye is Week 13, which is a consideration if your league's playoffs begin that week. Target him as a late-round flier if you need touchdown upside at the position and have already secured your core.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he posted 28 receptions, 42 targets, 414 receiving yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns. In 2025 he posted 29 receptions, 53 targets, 444 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns. The yardage and volume are similar across both years; the touchdowns are the variable.
The projection is 91.2 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks WR68 and #175 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -37.6, placing him below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The band runs from 20.2 points at the 10th percentile to 161.9 points at the 90th percentile, with a median of 75.4. The upside exists but it is heavily contingent on touchdown volume; the low end of the band reflects seasons where the touchdowns do not materialize.
Market ADP puts him at pick 158.3, or round 14, pick 2 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a late-round commitment with minimal opportunity cost if the season does not develop.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.