#61 overall · PHI · 260.9 projected half-PPR pts · +7.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 69.3
Jalen Hurts — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jalen Hurts is one of the most consistent dual-threat quarterbacks in recent fantasy history, and the three-year averages make that case plainly. From 2023 through 2025 he averaged 22 passing touchdowns, 12.3 rushing touchdowns, 3,328.3 passing yards, and 552 rushing yards per season. No single-dimension passer produces that kind of rushing touchdown floor. The 2025 season added 25 passing touchdowns on 294 completions and 3,224 yards, while his 8 rushing touchdowns came on 105 attempts for 421 yards. The rushing volume has moderated from its 2023 peak of 157 attempts, but the scoring efficiency on the ground has remained. Fumble losses have also trended in the right direction: 5 in 2023, 5 in 2024, and 3 in 2025. For a drafter who wants a QB who contributes across every scoring category, the historical profile is hard to dismiss.
What the model projects
The projection is 260.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That produces a draft value of +7.0 points above replacement at the position, placing Hurts at QB5 and #61 overall in Tier 8. The point estimate sits just above the median simulated season of 256.0, which means the distribution is modestly right-skewed: the upside tail is slightly longer than the downside tail. At 260.9 projected points, Hurts clears replacement level at the quarterback position, though the margin is measured rather than commanding.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 538 | 352 | 3858 | 23 | 15 | 157 | 605 | 15 | 7 | 371.8 |
| 2024 | 361 | 248 | 2903 | 18 | 5 | 150 | 630 | 14 | 9 | 320.1 |
| 2025 | 454 | 294 | 3224 | 25 | 6 | 105 | 421 | 8 | 7 | 307.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 451 | 298 | 3328.3 | 22 | 8.7 | 137.3 | 552 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 341.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, and that width is the central fact about Hurts as a fantasy asset. The 10th-percentile outcome is 108.0 points, a floor that reflects genuine downside risk. The 25th percentile comes in at 197.7, still well below the projection. The median is 256.0. The 75th percentile reaches 317.3, and the 90th-percentile outcome is 365.8 points. The gap between the p10 and p90 is 257.8 points, which is a substantial spread. Drafters who land the upside scenario get a QB1 who can carry a week; those who land the downside scenario face a significant shortfall. The three-year history of fluctuating rushing volume and turnover rates is consistent with that kind of variance. The 2023 season produced 15 interceptions and 7 fumbles; 2024 cut interceptions to 5; 2025 held interceptions at 6 with 7 fumbles. The stat line can shift meaningfully from year to year.
(bottom 10%)
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(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Hurts sits at #61 overall and QB5 in Tier 8. The market is drafting him at pick 69.3 on average, which works out to the 6th round, 9th pick in a 12-team draft (6.09). In a standard snake draft, that means you are committing a sixth-round pick to the quarterback position. His bye is Week 10, so plan your streaming depth accordingly. The wide outcome band means the player you get can look very different from the projection depending on how the season unfolds, so roster construction around him matters.
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Questions drafters ask
The market ADP is 69.3, which translates to pick 6.09 in a 12-team snake draft. You are spending a sixth-round pick to secure him.
His rush attempts have declined each year: 157 in 2023, 150 in 2024, and 105 in 2025. The three-year average is 137.3 attempts per season. Rushing yards have followed a similar path: 605, 630, and 421 in those three seasons, averaging 552 per year. Rushing touchdowns were 15, 14, and 8, averaging 12.3 over the period.
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 108.0 half-PPR points. The 25th percentile is 197.7. Those are the numbers that define the bad-season range in the model's simulations.
He is QB5 at #61 overall, placed in Tier 8. His projected points are 260.9 with a draft value of +7.0 above replacement at the position.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.