#61 overall · DEN · 137.0 projected half-PPR pts · +8.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 71.7
Courtland Sutton — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Courtland Sutton has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons, logging 1,081 yards in 2024 and 1,017 in 2025. Over the last three years he has averaged 116.3 targets, 71.3 receptions, 956.7 receiving yards, and 8.3 receiving touchdowns per season. That target volume is the foundation of his case: he has been a consistent focal point of the Denver passing game, and the three-year averages show that consistency is not a one-year story. His touchdown production has been reliable as well, with double-digit scores in 2023 (10) and strong totals in 2024 (8) and 2025 (7). At WR26 with a positive draft value of +8.3, he projects above replacement level at the position.
What the model projects
The projection is 137.0 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. Sutton sits at #61 overall and WR26, placed in Tier 8. His draft value of +8.3 puts him above replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 141.4 points, close to the point estimate. His bye week is Week 10.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 90 | 59 | 772 | 10 | 3 | 160.7 |
| 2024 | 135 | 81 | 1081 | 8 | 1 | 199.8 |
| 2025 | 124 | 74 | 1017 | 7 | — | 180.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 116.3 | 71.3 | 956.7 | 8.3 | 1.3 | 182.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which reflects the real season-to-season variance a drafter should price in. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 61.1 points. The 25th percentile sits at 99.1 points, still a serviceable floor but a meaningful step down from the projection. The median simulated season is 141.4 points. The optimistic side opens up considerably: the 75th percentile reaches 175.8 points and the top-10% threshold is 212.4 points. That upper band represents a genuine WR2 ceiling. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is over 150 points, so drafters should understand they are taking on variance alongside the upside.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently drafting Sutton at an average pick of 71.7, which works out to pick 6.12 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the window a drafter needs to plan around: if Sutton is on the target list, the pick commitment comes in the sixth round. The model has him at #61 overall and WR26. His bye falls in Week 10, worth noting for roster management during the season.
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Questions drafters ask
The three-year average from 2023 through 2025 is 116.3 targets and 71.3 receptions per season. He cleared 90 targets in 2023, 135 in 2024, and 124 in 2025, so the volume has been real and sustained across all three years.
The p10 outcome from the simulated season band is 61.1 half-PPR points, meaning 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below that total. The p25 floor is 99.1 points. Those are the numbers that define the downside range.
The market ADP is 71.7, which translates to pick 6.12 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the sixth round, twelfth pick, and the realistic commitment point if you want to land him.
The p90 outcome from the simulated band is 212.4 half-PPR points, reached in the top 10% of simulated seasons. The p75 outcome is 175.8 points. His 2024 season produced 1,081 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, which gives historical context for what a strong year looks like.
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Beyond the rankings
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