#158 overall · DET · 134.0 projected half-PPR pts · -31.8 Draft Value
Jake Bates — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Bates has back-to-back seasons of 26 and 27 made field goals, with a three-year average of 26.5 makes on 31.5 attempts. The long-range work stands out: he connected on 7 field goals from 40-49 yards and 6 from 50-plus in 2024, then followed with 9 from 40-49 and 4 from 50-plus in 2025. Detroit's offense generates volume, as the 67 extra-point attempts in 2024 and 56 in 2025 confirm. A kicker attached to a high-scoring offense with a demonstrated ability to convert from distance is a real asset at the position, and the 2025 season showed he can handle a heavier field-goal workload: 34 attempts, the most across his two full seasons on record.
What the model projects
The projection is 134.9 half-PPR fantasy points. Bates ranks K7 at his position and #182 overall. He sits in Tier 9. His draft value is -42.1, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at kicker in a 12-team half-PPR format. That is the number, and drafters should weigh it plainly.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | 3 | 64 | 158.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | 5 | 54 | 147.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 26.5 | 4 | 59 | 55.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band runs from 102.9 points at the 10th percentile to 161.0 at the 90th. The median simulated season lands at 144.0 points, a few ticks above the 134.9 point estimate. The 25th percentile is 123.3 and the 75th is 154.6. The gap between a bad season and a great one spans roughly 58 points, which reflects the inherent variance in kicker scoring. A floor around 103 points is a real possibility; a ceiling near 161 is equally real. Detroit's bye falls in Week 6, a factor worth noting for roster management.
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(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Bates going at pick 151.7, which works out to Round 13, pick 8 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him. The model has him at #182 overall and K7. Kickers are typically the last position filled in snake drafts, and the ADP here reflects that pattern. If you want Bates specifically, Round 13 is when the market says he goes. Given his negative draft value, the calculus is straightforward: he is a late-round kicker option, and the decision comes down to whether his Detroit volume and long-range track record make him the kicker you want to target at that stage of your draft.
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Questions drafters ask
His draft value is -42.1, which places him below replacement level at kicker in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks K7 at the position and #182 overall. The projection is 134.9 points. Drafters who prioritize kicker volume and long-range upside may still find him useful late, but the negative draft value is the honest starting point for that decision.
He made 26 field goals in 2024 and 27 in 2025, on 29 and 34 attempts respectively. His three-year average is 26.5 makes on 31.5 attempts with 4 misses per season. That is a steady volume profile across both seasons on record.
In 2024 he hit 6 field goals from 50-plus yards and 7 from 40-49. In 2025 he hit 4 from 50-plus and 9 from 40-49. Long-range attempts are where kicker scoring separates, and Bates has converted at that distance in both seasons.
Market ADP puts him at pick 151.7, or Round 13, pick 8 in a 12-team draft. That is the average pick at which he is coming off the board across the platforms that reported him. If he is your target kicker, that is the window to act.
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Beyond the rankings
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