#157 overall · ATL · 114.3 projected half-PPR pts · -31.5 Draft Value
Atlanta Falcons — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case rests almost entirely on one number: 57 sacks in 2025. That is a sharp jump from 31 in 2024 and 42 in 2023, and it pushes the three-year average to 43.3 sacks per season. Atlanta also posted 16 interceptions in 2025, the best single-season takeaway total across the three years on record, against a three-year average of 12. Fumbles forced have held steady at 12 in each of the last two seasons. If the pass-rush production from 2025 carries into 2026, the unit has a real floor as a sack-generating asset.
What the model projects
The projection is 114.3 half-PPR fantasy points. The draft value is -31.5, meaning the unit projects below replacement level at the DST position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That places Atlanta at DST19 and #156 overall, in Tier 9. The three-year average points allowed is 399 per season, with 423 allowed in 2024 and 401 in 2025, so the defense has consistently been on the permissive side of the ledger even as the pass rush improved.
| Sacks | INT | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | PA 1-6 | PA 7-13 | PA 14-20 | PA 21-27 | PA 28-34 | PA 35+ | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 42 | 8 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 373 | — | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 113.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 423 | — | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 96.0 |
| 2025 | 57 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 1 | — | 401 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 127.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 43.3 | 12 | 14.3 | 7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 399 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 107.2 |
The range of outcomes
The historical record shows meaningful variance in the components that drive DST scoring. Sacks swung from 31 to 57 across just two seasons. Interceptions moved from 8 in 2023 to 16 in 2025. Touchdowns scored by the defense have been limited, averaging 1.7 per season over three years, with a high of 3 in 2024. Points allowed have ranged from 373 to 423 across the same window. In 2025, Atlanta held opponents to 1-6 points once and to 7-13 points once, but also surrendered 28-34 points five times. That distribution of game scores reflects a unit capable of dominant individual performances alongside a meaningful number of high-scoring games allowed.
How to draft him
Atlanta is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no draft-slot anchor to work from. What the rankings do say is clear: at DST19 and #156 overall in Tier 9, this is a late-round or streaming-tier option in a standard 12-team draft. The negative draft value signals that the projection sits below what replacement-level DST production looks like in this format. Draft Atlanta only if you are filling a DST slot in the final rounds and the 2025 sack spike is a risk you are willing to bet on repeating.
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Questions drafters ask
At DST19 and #156 overall with a draft value of -31.5, the projection sits below replacement level for the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. There is no market ADP to anchor a specific round, which itself signals the unit is not being consistently targeted in public drafts.
Atlanta recorded 57 sacks in 2025, up from 31 in 2024 and 42 in 2023, for a three-year average of 43.3. Sacks are a direct fantasy scoring category for DSTs, so that 2025 spike is the strongest argument for the unit. Whether that level repeats is the central question the projection, at 114.3 points, does not answer with optimism.
Points allowed directly affect DST fantasy scoring. Atlanta allowed 373 points in 2023, 423 in 2024, and 401 in 2025, averaging 399 over the three-year window. In 2025, opponents scored 28 or more points in six of Atlanta's games (five in the 28-34 range, one at 35-plus), which caps the unit's weekly ceiling on a regular basis.
The 2025 season offers the clearest upside data point: 57 sacks, 16 interceptions, 12 fumbles forced, and only one game where opponents scored 35 or more points. Even in that strong year the unit allowed 401 total points, so the ceiling is tied closely to whether the pass rush stays at that level while the points-allowed profile improves.
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Beyond the rankings
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