#47 overall · LAC · 154.5 projected half-PPR pts · +25.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 37.7
Ladd McConkey — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
McConkey's 2024 season is the anchor here: 112 targets, 82 receptions, 1,149 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns. That is a legitimate WR1 workload, and the target volume alone — 112 in 2024, 106 in 2025 — tells you he is a featured piece of the LAC passing game rather than a depth option waiting for opportunity. The three-year aggregate backs it up: 109 targets, 74 receptions, and 969 receiving yards per season on average, with 6.5 receiving touchdowns. The usage is real and it has been consistent. His draftValue sits at +25.3, meaning the projection puts him above replacement level at the position. For a drafter building a WR corps, that positive surplus is the foundation of the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 154.5 half-PPR points for the season. That lands McConkey at WR21 at his position and #47 overall, placing him in Tier 7. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 165.1 points, which sits modestly above the point estimate — the two are close but not identical, and both are worth knowing. His bye week is Week 7.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 112 | 82 | 1149 | 7 | 2 | 197.9 |
| 2025 | 106 | 66 | 789 | 6 | — | 147.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 109 | 74 | 969 | 6.5 | 1 | 172.9 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated outcome band is wide, and that width is the honest story here. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 77.1 points — a number that reflects how badly a WR-dependent season can go. The 25th percentile is 119.9 points, still a below-projection outcome. The median sits at 165.1. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 198.9 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons hit 231.3. The gap between p10 and p90 spans more than 154 points, which is a meaningful spread. Drafters who land the p75-to-p90 version of McConkey get a weekly starter; those who land the p10 version are managing a problem. The 2025 line — 789 yards and 6 touchdowns on 106 targets — shows that a reduced output season is already in the historical record, which the band reflects.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is taking McConkey at pick 37.7 on average, which works out to the 2nd pick of the 4th round in a 12-team draft (4.02). The model has him at #47 overall and WR21. Both numbers are worth keeping in your head as you approach that part of the draft. In practical terms: if you want McConkey, the market is pricing him in Round 4, so that is when you need to be ready to spend a pick. His bye falls in Week 7, which is a manageable but real roster-management consideration. Given the width of his outcome band, pairing him with a steadier WR option elsewhere in your build is a reasonable way to manage the variance.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 82 passes on 112 targets for 1,149 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns in 2024 — a full-featured season as a primary target in the LAC offense.
The projection is 154.5 half-PPR points. That ranks him WR21 at his position and #47 overall, in Tier 7. His draftValue is +25.3, putting him above replacement level.
The simulated band runs from 77.1 points at the 10th percentile to 231.3 at the 90th. A bad season — bottom 10% — lands at 77.1 points. The 2025 season (789 yards, 6 TDs on 106 targets) is already an example of a below-peak output year in his history.
The market average is pick 37.7, which translates to the 2nd pick of Round 4 (4.02) in a 12-team draft. If McConkey is on your target list, Round 4 is when you need to be prepared to pull the trigger.
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Beyond the rankings
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