#288 overall · TEN · 48.6 projected half-PPR pts · -67.2 Draft Value
Gunnar Helm — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Gunnar Helm's 2025 season is the only NFL receiving history on record for him, and it is the full picture: 55 targets, 44 receptions, 357 yards, and 2 touchdowns for Tennessee. The catch rate on those targets is clean, and the volume, while modest, represents a real role in a real offense. For a drafter willing to roster a late-depth tight end, Helm is a known quantity at the position rather than a pure projection.
What the model projects
The projection is 48.4 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That sits against a draft value of -73.9, placing Helm at TE37 and #263 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 46.7 points, close to the point estimate, which signals a relatively centered distribution around a low baseline.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55 | 44 | 357 | 2 | 69.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 55 | 44 | 357 | 2 | 69.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide relative to the projection. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons produces just 10.0 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile comes in at 23.9 points. The median is 46.7. The 75th percentile reaches 71.2 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons lands at 105.1 points. That upper tail is meaningful: a season at the 90th percentile would represent genuine fantasy utility at the position. The floor, however, is severe, and the gap between the floor and the ceiling is among the widest in the band relative to the projection itself.
(bottom 10%)
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our projection
How to draft him
Helm does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In a snake draft, that translates to a player available off the wire or at the very back end of deep drafts. His bye is Week 9. Given the negative draft value and the absence of a market price, Helm fits as a late-roster stash in deeper leagues, not a target in standard 12-team formats. Draft him only if you are carrying multiple tight ends and can absorb the floor risk.
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Questions drafters ask
Helm posted 55 targets, 44 receptions, 357 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns for Tennessee in 2025. That is his entire NFL receiving history.
The projection is 48.4 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season is 46.7 points, very close to that estimate. His draft value is -73.9, placing him at TE37 and #263 overall in Tier 9.
There is a real upper tail. The 90th percentile of simulated seasons reaches 105.1 points, and the 75th percentile is 71.2. The floor is severe, though: the 10th percentile is just 10.0 points and the 25th percentile is 23.9. The range is wide relative to the 48.4-point projection.
Helm does not have a market ADP in public 2026 drafts. He is not being selected consistently enough across platforms to produce a median draft position, so he is effectively a waiver-wire or deep-draft-only option in standard 12-team leagues.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.