#287 overall · TEN · 43.7 projected half-PPR pts · -66.5 Draft Value
Michael Carter — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Michael Carter is a Tennessee Titans running back with a three-year track record of contributing both on the ground and as a receiver. His best recent season came in 2025, when he posted 92 rush attempts for 333 yards, caught 33 of 45 targets for 267 receiving yards, and added a rushing touchdown. That receiving volume, 45 targets in a single season, is the clearest argument for his relevance in half-PPR formats. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 52.3 rush attempts, 29 targets, 22.7 receptions, 217 rush yards, and 141.7 receiving yards per year. The 2025 season represents a meaningful step up from his 2024 line of 35 carries, 131 rush yards, 11 receptions, and 57 receiving yards. A drafter looking for a late-roster flier with a receiving floor has a factual basis to consider him.
What the model projects
The projection for Carter is 43.7 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -83.6, placing him RB67 and #308 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player who projects below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the headline number; it is not the same as the median simulated season, which is addressed in the next section.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 30 | 187 | — | 31 | 24 | 101 | 1 | 46.8 |
| 2024 | 35 | 131 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 57 | — | 30.3 |
| 2025 | 92 | 333 | 1 | 45 | 33 | 267 | — | 82.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 52.3 | 217 | 0.7 | 29 | 22.7 | 141.7 | 0.3 | 53.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band for Carter is wide and skewed. The 10th-percentile outcome is 0.0 points, meaning the worst-case scenarios produce essentially nothing. The 25th percentile lands at 8.4 points. The median simulated season comes in at 26.5 points. Move to the 75th percentile and the outcome rises to 64.8 points; the 90th-percentile season reaches 100.5 points. That spread from floor to ceiling is substantial. The bottom half of outcomes clusters near zero, while the top decile approaches a genuinely usable fantasy season. This is a high-variance profile: most simulated seasons produce very little, but the upside tail is real.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Carter does not have a market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. In practice, that puts him in the pool of players available as free agents or at the very end of deep drafts. His Tier 9 placement and #308 overall rank make him a depth addition rather than a roster cornerstone. If you are building out the back end of a roster and want a receiver-friendly running back with a documented target share, Carter is a name to keep in mind. His bye is Week 9. Do not count on him as a starter; his value, if it materializes, comes from the upside tail of that outcome band.
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Questions drafters ask
Yes, factually. In 2025 he saw 45 targets, caught 33 for 267 yards. His three-year average is 29 targets and 22.7 receptions per season. That is a documented receiving role, which carries real weight in half-PPR scoring.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 100.5 half-PPR points. That is the top-decile result across all simulated seasons. The 75th-percentile outcome is 64.8 points. Most seasons land well below those figures, but the ceiling exists.
The 10th-percentile simulated season is 0.0 points and the 25th percentile is 8.4 points. The bottom half of outcomes is concentrated near zero, so the floor is essentially nothing.
Carter has no available market ADP, which means he is not being consistently drafted across platforms. He is effectively a free agent or a final-round addition in most drafts. His rank is #308 overall and RB67, placing him in Tier 9.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.