#286 overall · LAR · 49.3 projected half-PPR pts · -66.5 Draft Value
Colby Parkinson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Colby Parkinson's 2025 season was the clearest version of what he can be. He posted 408 receiving yards, 43 receptions, and 8 touchdowns on 56 targets, all career highs. That touchdown total is the number that stands out: it nearly doubled his combined output from the two prior seasons, when he scored 2 in 2023 and 1 in 2024. The three-year averages tell a story of gradual growth, 32.7 receptions, 46.3 targets, and 3.7 touchdowns per season, but 2025 was a meaningful step above that trend line. For a drafter willing to roster a late-depth tight end, the 2025 season is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 48.5 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits close to the median simulated outcome of 46.8 points. Parkinson is ranked #265 overall and TE37, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -71.2, which means the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The numbers are what they are: this is a depth profile, not a starter projection.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 34 | 25 | 247 | 2 | — | 49.2 |
| 2024 | 49 | 30 | 294 | 1 | — | 50.4 |
| 2025 | 56 | 43 | 408 | 8 | 1 | 108.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 46.3 | 32.7 | 316.3 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 70.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide relative to the projection. The 10th-percentile outcome is 10.1 points, a near-zero fantasy season. The 25th percentile comes in at 24.1 points. The median is 46.8 points, close to the point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 71.3 points, and the 90th-percentile outcome is 105.1 points. That top-decile number is meaningful context: in a strong season, Parkinson can produce at a usable level. The 2025 touchdown pace is the engine behind that upside, and the gap between the floor and ceiling here is substantial. Drafters should understand that the most likely outcome is a low-volume season, but the ceiling is real.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
Parkinson does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms tracked. In a 12-team half-PPR league, he is a late-round or undrafted target for the final tight end spot on a roster. His bye is Week 11. Given the negative draft value and the TE37 rank, he belongs in the conversation only after the position's meaningful tiers are exhausted. The 2025 touchdown spike gives him a reason to be on a watch list; the projection and rank give him a reason to stay off the main roster until needed.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 48.5 points with a draft value of -71.2, placing him below replacement level at TE in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks TE37 and #265 overall in Tier 9. He is a depth option, not a reliable starter, but his 90th-percentile simulated outcome of 105.1 points shows there is a real ceiling if the 2025 touchdown pace (8 scores on 56 targets) carries forward.
Targets went from 34 in 2023 to 49 in 2024 to 56 in 2025. Receptions followed the same arc: 25, 30, and 43. Receiving yards were 247, 294, and 408. Touchdowns were 2, 1, and 8. The three-year averages are 46.3 targets, 32.7 receptions, 316.3 yards, and 3.7 touchdowns per season.
He does not have a consistent market ADP across tracked platforms, so he is effectively undrafted in most public 2026 leagues. His rank is #265 overall and TE37. He is a late-roster addition once the position's higher tiers are filled, not a pick that requires planning earlier in the draft.
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 10.1 points for the season, and the 25th percentile is 24.1 points. Those are near-zero fantasy contributions. The median outcome is 46.8 points. The floor is low, and drafters rostering him should treat him as a speculative add rather than a reliable weekly starter.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.