#316 overall · DAL · 41.1 projected half-PPR pts · -74.1 Draft Value
Ryan Flournoy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Ryan Flournoy's 2025 season is the foundation of whatever case exists here. He caught 40 of 56 targets for 475 yards and 4 receiving touchdowns, adding 4 rush attempts for 25 yards. That is a meaningful step up from his 2024 line of 10 receptions on 14 targets for 102 yards. The three-year averages tell a similar story of growth: 35 targets, 25 receptions, 288.5 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns per season across 2023-2025. For a drafter willing to roster a WR77 as a late-round flier, the 2025 production is the data point that keeps the conversation open.
What the model projects
The projection is 83.6 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits against a draftValue of -45.1, placing Flournoy at WR77 and #203 overall in Tier 9. The projection is below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. Dallas has a Week 14 bye.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 14 | 10 | 102 | — | — | — | 1 | 13.2 |
| 2025 | 56 | 40 | 475 | 4 | 4 | 25 | — | 94.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 35 | 25 | 288.5 | 2 | 2 | 12.5 | 0.5 | 54.6 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The median outcome (p50) is 64.4 points, which is notably below the 83.6 point projection. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at or below 13.5 points (p10), and the 25th percentile is 33.3 points (p25). On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 100.7 points (p75) and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 153.6 points (p90). The distance between the p10 and p90 outcomes is roughly 140 points, which reflects substantial season-to-season variance. Most simulated seasons cluster well below the projection; the high-end outcomes are real but not the central expectation.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP for Flournoy is 194.6, which works out to pick 17.03 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #203 overall. At that draft slot, he is a depth or stash option, not a starter. His bye falls in Week 14, which is a common fantasy playoff week, so roster construction around him requires planning. Given the negative draftValue and the wide outcome band skewed toward the low end, he fits best as a final-round addition for drafters who want exposure to his 2025 breakout at minimal cost.
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Questions drafters ask
The model has him at WR77 and #203 overall with a draftValue of -45.1, meaning he projects below replacement level at wide receiver. He is a depth or stash option, not a player to count on for weekly starts.
He caught 40 of 56 targets for 475 yards and 4 receiving touchdowns, and added 25 rush yards on 4 attempts. That was a significant jump from his 2024 line of 10 receptions, 14 targets, and 102 receiving yards.
The p90 outcome from the simulated season band is 153.6 half-PPR points, meaning roughly 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above that total. The p75 outcome is 100.7 points. Those are the high-end scenarios; the median simulated season lands at 64.4 points.
His market ADP is 194.6, which translates to pick 17.03 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a late-round pick, consistent with his Tier 9 standing in the rankings.
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Beyond the rankings
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