#87 overall · JAX · 111.7 projected half-PPR pts · -3.5 Draft Value
Jakobi Meyers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jakobi Meyers has been one of the more reliable volume accumulators at the position over the past three seasons. He has cleared 100 targets in each of the last three years, averaging 115 targets per season across 2023-2025. That kind of target floor is real. In 2024 he posted 1,027 receiving yards and 87 receptions on 129 targets. In 2025 he followed with 835 yards, 75 catches, and 110 targets. The volume has been consistent even when the touchdowns have not: his three-year average of 5 receiving touchdowns per season shows the upside is there, even if 2025's total of 3 was a step back from 2023's 8. For a drafter building a late-round receiver room, Meyers offers a known target share and a track record of staying on the field and catching the ball.
What the model projects
The projection for Meyers is 118.6 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -10.2, which places him below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That lands him at WR42 and #96 overall, in Tier 9. The projection sits close to his three-year average production, consistent with a receiver who has delivered a narrow but predictable range of outcomes season over season.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 106 | 71 | 807 | 8 | 4 | 24 | 2 | — | 183.1 |
| 2024 | 129 | 87 | 1027 | 4 | 2 | 23 | — | — | 172.5 |
| 2025 | 110 | 75 | 835 | 3 | 5 | 13 | — | 1 | 138.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 115 | 77.7 | 889.7 | 5 | 3.7 | 20 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 165.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the 10th percentile, Meyers finishes at 44.6 points: a season where almost nothing goes right. The 25th percentile is 76.4 points, still a difficult fantasy year. The median simulated season lands at 114.8 points, close to the point estimate of 118.6. The 75th percentile reaches 149.9 points, and the 90th percentile tops out at 192.2 points. That upper band represents a meaningful outcome: 192.2 points would be a genuinely useful WR season. The gap between the floor and the ceiling is substantial, which means the result depends heavily on factors that can swing sharply from year to year. His three-year average of 5 receiving touchdowns is the clearest lever: in 2023 he scored 8 and the season looked very different than 2025's 3.
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(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
Meyers is going off draft boards at an average pick of 115.8, which works out to the 8th pick of the 10th round in a 12-team draft. That is the window a drafter needs to be prepared to spend to secure him. At WR42 and #96 overall in Tier 9, he profiles as a depth receiver rather than a starter. His bye is Week 7, worth noting when building out a roster. The projection of 118.6 points and a negative draft value suggest he is a player who fills a spot rather than anchors a lineup, but his consistent target volume gives him a clearer path to his median outcome than receivers who depend on a single big game to reach their number.
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Questions drafters ask
Consistent. He has cleared 100 targets in each of the past three seasons: 106 in 2023, 129 in 2024, and 110 in 2025, for a three-year average of 115 targets per season.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 192.2 half-PPR points. His best recent touchdown season was 2023, when he caught 8 receiving touchdowns to go with 807 yards and 71 receptions.
Market ADP has him going at pick 115.8, the 8th pick of the 10th round in a 12-team draft, based on a median across 2 platforms.
His draft value is -10.2, meaning the projection of 118.6 points sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks WR42 and #96 overall in Tier 9.
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Beyond the rankings
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