#137 overall · DET · 120.2 projected half-PPR pts · -25.7 Draft Value
Detroit Lions — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Detroit has been one of the more consistent pass-rush units in the league over the three seasons on record. The Lions averaged 42 sacks per year from 2023 through 2025, with 2025 representing the high-water mark at 48. Interceptions have held steady at 15 per year on average, and the unit has forced an average of 13.7 fumbles annually over that same stretch. Those are real, repeatable fantasy-scoring inputs. The 2024 season showed the defense at its most efficient: 342 points allowed, 16 interceptions, 8 fumbles recovered, and 2 defensive touchdowns. If that version of the unit shows up again, the floor is higher than DST12 suggests.
What the model projects
The projection is 120.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Detroit at DST12 by position rank and #137 overall, landing in Tier 9. The draft value is -25.7, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the DST position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year average of 383.3 points allowed per season is the backdrop for that number; 2025's 413 points against is the heaviest defensive workload in the sample and pulls the aggregate up. The sack total trending upward to 48 in 2025 is a positive signal, but the points-allowed trajectory is moving in the wrong direction for fantasy scoring.
| Sacks | INT | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | PA 1-6 | PA 7-13 | PA 14-20 | PA 21-27 | PA 28-34 | PA 35+ | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 41 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 395 | 2 | — | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 111.0 |
| 2024 | 37 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 2 | — | 342 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 134.0 |
| 2025 | 48 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 413 | — | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 110.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 42 | 15 | 13.7 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 383.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 108.3 |
The range of outcomes
The points-allowed distribution across the three seasons on record illustrates how wide the variance can be. In 2024, Detroit had 6 games allowing 14-20 points and only 1 game allowing 35 or more. In 2025, the unit had 7 games in the 21-27 range and 5 in the 28-34 range, a notably softer game-by-game profile. The sack total climbed to 48 in 2025, and fumbles forced reached 15, so the turnover and pressure inputs remain strong. The key variable is whether the points-allowed profile reverts closer to 2024 or stays near 2025 levels. A repeat of 2024's efficiency pushes the fantasy ceiling up; a repeat of 2025's scoring-defense struggles keeps the floor low. Detroit's Week 6 bye is also a scheduling factor worth noting when setting weekly lineups.
How to draft him
Detroit's adp is unavailable, meaning the unit is not being drafted consistently enough across public platforms to produce a reliable market price. At DST12 with a negative draft value, this is a late-round or waiver-wire consideration in most 12-team formats. The projection of 120.2 points and a -25.7 draft value reflect a unit that projects below replacement level, so the calculus is straightforward: do not spend an early pick here. If you are targeting Detroit, the right approach is to wait until the final rounds and treat it as a streaming option rather than a locked starter, keeping the bye week in mind when building your DST rotation.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 120.2 points with a draft value of -25.7, placing Detroit at DST12 and #137 overall in Tier 9. That negative draft value means the unit projects below replacement level, so it is not a recommended target in most formats unless you are filling a late roster spot.
Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, Detroit averaged 42 sacks, 15 interceptions, 13.7 fumbles forced, and 383.3 points allowed per year. The 2025 season produced a career-high 48 sacks and 15 fumbles forced, but points allowed rose to 413, the highest in the three-year sample.
Detroit's bye is Week 6. DST is the most streamable position in fantasy, and knowing the bye week early lets you plan a replacement option rather than being caught without a starter mid-season.
Yes. In 2024, Detroit had 6 games allowing 14-20 points and only 1 game allowing 35 or more. In 2025, the unit had 7 games in the 21-27 range and 5 in the 28-34 range, reflecting a softer points-allowed profile despite the higher sack total.
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Beyond the rankings
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