#39 overall · LAR · 159.1 projected half-PPR pts · +30.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 45.0
Davante Adams — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Davante Adams arrives in Los Angeles with three consecutive seasons of double-digit or near-double-digit touchdown production. Over the last three years he has averaged 10 receiving touchdowns per season, and his 2025 campaign produced a career-high 14 despite a reduced yardage and reception total. The target volume has been real: 175 in 2023, 141 in 2024, 114 in 2025, with a three-year average of 143.3 per season. The receptions have followed, averaging 82.7 per year over that same stretch. This is a receiver whose touchdown floor has held firm across varying levels of volume, and whose route-running efficiency keeps him relevant even when raw target counts dip. At WR16 with a positive draft value, he sits in a tier where the production case is grounded in recent history, not projection alone.
What the model projects
The projection is 159.1 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. His draft value is +30.3, meaning he projects above replacement level at the wide receiver position. He ranks #39 overall and WR16, placed in Tier 7. The point estimate of 159.1 sits below the median simulated season of 169.7, which reflects the shape of his outcome distribution. Both numbers are worth knowing: the projection is the headline, and the median simulated season tells you the typical result across a full range of modeled outcomes.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 175 | 103 | 1144 | 8 | 213.9 |
| 2024 | 141 | 85 | 1063 | 8 | 196.8 |
| 2025 | 114 | 60 | 789 | 14 | 192.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 143.3 | 82.7 | 998.7 | 10 | 201.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 81.7 points, a number that reflects how badly a low-volume, low-touchdown season can compress a receiver's fantasy value. The 25th percentile lands at 124.5, still a meaningful step below replacement-level usefulness in most leagues. The median sits at 169.7. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 203.5 and the 90th percentile reaches 235.9. That top-end outcome is consistent with what his 2023 and 2024 yardage totals suggest is possible when volume is high. The gap between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, 81.7 to 235.9, is among the wider bands a drafter will encounter at this position rank, and it is the central fact to weigh before committing a pick.
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Adams at an average of pick 45.0, which works out to the 4th round, 9th pick in a 12-team draft. That is the window where you will need to spend to secure him. His bye is Week 11, a mid-season rest that is worth noting for roster management but not a reason to avoid him. The wide outcome band is the real planning question: the upside at the 90th percentile is genuine, but the downside at the 10th percentile is steep. Drafters who want the ceiling should be prepared to absorb the floor. At his current market price, the decision comes down to how much variance you are willing to carry at the receiver position in Round 4.
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Questions drafters ask
He has posted 8, 8, and 14 receiving touchdowns in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, for a three-year average of 10 per season. The 2025 total of 14 was his highest of the three years.
The 10th-percentile simulated season finishes at 81.7 half-PPR points and the 90th-percentile finishes at 235.9. The median simulated season is 169.7, while the model's point projection is 159.1. The spread from floor to ceiling is substantial.
The market ADP is 45.0, which translates to the 4th round, 9th pick in a 12-team draft. That is the pick range where he is currently being selected across public drafts.
Targets have declined from 175 in 2023 to 141 in 2024 to 114 in 2025, with a three-year average of 143.3. Receptions followed a similar path: 103, 85, and 60, averaging 82.7 per year.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.