#242 overall · CLE · 51.6 projected half-PPR pts · -58.6 Draft Value
Dylan Sampson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Dylan Sampson is a Cleveland RB with a receiving profile that stands out relative to his rushing volume. In 2025, he logged 40 targets, 33 receptions, and 271 receiving yards alongside 65 rush attempts and 175 rush yards. Two receiving touchdowns rounded out a season that leaned heavily on the pass-catching side. For a late-roster flier, that target share is the most interesting data point: 40 targets on 65 rush attempts is a ratio that suggests genuine involvement in the passing game, not just a pure change-of-pace role. His bye is Week 11, which is manageable for a depth stash.
What the model projects
The projection is 68.6 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. His draft value is -58.9, placing him RB53 and #231 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player sitting below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 60.3 points, slightly below the 68.6 point estimate, which signals the distribution is skewed by upside scenarios rather than a symmetric spread.
| Car | Rush yds | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 65 | 175 | 40 | 33 | 271 | 2 | 1 | 71.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 65 | 175 | 40 | 33 | 271 | 2 | 1 | 73.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 8.0 points, essentially a non-factor. The 25th percentile is 26.9 points, still a minimal fantasy contribution. The median sits at 60.3 points. Move up to the 75th percentile and the number jumps to 102.2 points, a usable RB2/flex range. The 90th-percentile outcome reaches 146.1 points, which would represent a meaningful fantasy asset. The gap between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes is 138.1 points, a spread that reflects genuine uncertainty about his role and opportunity. This is a high-variance profile: most seasons end quietly, but the ceiling is real.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently drafting Sampson at pick 182.0, which works out to round 16, pick 2 in a 12-team draft. That is deep-roster territory. At RB53 and #231 overall, he is a depth stash rather than a core piece. His value is almost entirely contingent on opportunity expanding. Draft him only if you have your starting lineup secured and are hunting for late-round upside. His receiving profile gives him a path to relevance that a pure runner at this range would not have, but the base case is a low-volume backup season.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects 68.6 points and a draft value of -58.9, placing him RB53 and #231 overall in Tier 9. He is below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. The market is taking him at pick 182.0 (round 16.02). He is a depth stash, not a core pick, but his 40 targets and 33 receptions in 2025 give him a receiving floor that pure handcuffs at this range typically lack.
The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 146.1 points in half-PPR. That is the top-10% outcome. The 75th percentile is 102.2 points. Both require significantly more opportunity than his 2025 stat line (65 rush attempts, 40 targets) reflects. The base case, the median simulated season, is 60.3 points.
Not very. The 10th-percentile simulated season is 8.0 points and the 25th percentile is 26.9 points. In half of simulated seasons he finishes at or below 60.3 points. This is a high-variance profile with a soft floor.
It is the most relevant data point in his profile. He posted 40 targets, 33 receptions, and 271 receiving yards in 2025, which is the entirety of his three-year aggregate as well, meaning 2025 was his only meaningful NFL season on record. That pass-catching involvement is what separates him from a pure depth back at this draft range.
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Beyond the rankings
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