#82 overall · DEN · 107.6 projected half-PPR pts · -2.6 Draft Value
RJ Harvey — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
RJ Harvey's 2025 season is the only NFL production on his ledger, and it was a legitimate dual-threat showing. He carried the ball 146 times for 540 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns while adding 47 receptions on 58 targets for 356 receiving yards and 5 more scores. Twelve total touchdowns in a single season is a real number, and the receiving volume — nearly five targets per game across a full schedule — signals genuine involvement in the passing game, not just a token role. One fumble lost on 146 carries is a clean ball-security mark. The foundation here is a back who has already demonstrated he can contribute in multiple ways at the NFL level.
What the model projects
The projection is 112.8 half-PPR points. Harvey sits at RB33 and #110 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -14.6, which places him below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 112.8 is close to his median simulated outcome of 115.3, so the projection and the typical simulated season are roughly aligned.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 146 | 540 | 7 | 58 | 47 | 356 | 5 | 1 | 183.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 146 | 540 | 7 | 58 | 47 | 356 | 5 | 1 | 185.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 34.0 points — a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile lands at 68.1 points, still a thin return on a roster spot. The median sits at 115.3 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 159.9 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 203.4 points. That top-decile outcome would represent genuine RB2 production. The gap between the floor and the ceiling is among the widest you will find at this tier, which means Harvey is a high-variance asset. The downside is real and the upside is real in equal measure.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP sits at 94.4, which works out to pick 8.10 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the pick you will need to spend to secure him in a typical public draft. Harvey is ranked #110 overall by draft value, so the market is moving on him earlier than that rank. Plan your roster construction around the reality that he will likely be off the table before the ninth round. His bye is Week 10, worth noting for lineup planning in the back half of the season.
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Questions drafters ask
He posted 146 rush attempts for 540 yards and 7 rushing touchdowns, caught 47 of 58 targets for 356 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns, and lost just 1 fumble all season — 12 total touchdowns in his first NFL campaign.
The projection is 112.8 half-PPR points. He ranks RB33 at #110 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -14.6, placing him below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The band runs from 34.0 points at the 10th percentile to 203.4 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 115.3 points. The top-decile outcome of 203.4 points represents a meaningful fantasy contributor, but the floor is very low.
Market ADP is 94.4, which translates to pick 8.10 in a 12-team snake draft. Based on current public drafts, you will need to spend a pick in the eighth round to land him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.