#63 overall · JAX · 133.8 projected half-PPR pts · +5.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 72.2
Brian Thomas — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Brian Thomas put together a legitimate WR1 season in 2024: 133 targets, 87 receptions, 1,282 receiving yards, and 10 receiving touchdowns. That is a full-season workload at volume, and it established him as a clear focal point in Jacksonville's passing game. The three-year averages back that up: 112 targets, 67.5 receptions, and 994.5 receiving yards per season, with 6 receiving touchdowns and a small rushing contribution layered on top. His 2025 line was reduced across the board, but the target share held at 91 over the course of that season. The underlying usage pattern points to a receiver who commands consistent volume when healthy and active.
What the model projects
The projection is 133.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That lands Thomas at #63 overall and WR28, sitting in Tier 8. His draft value is +5.6, meaning he projects above replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season comes in at 136.8 points, which is close to the point estimate. His bye week is 7.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 133 | 87 | 1282 | 10 | 6 | 48 | — | 236.5 |
| 2025 | 91 | 48 | 707 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 114.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 112 | 67.5 | 994.5 | 6 | 4.5 | 34.5 | 0.5 | 175.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the bottom 10% of simulated seasons, Thomas finishes at 58.2 points. The 25th percentile is 95.2 points. The median sits at 136.8, the 75th percentile at 171.3, and the top 10% of simulated seasons reaches 208.8 points. That is a spread of roughly 150 points from the floor to the ceiling, which reflects meaningful season-to-season variance. A strong outcome puts him well inside WR1 territory; a weak one drops him to near-replacement value. The 2024 and 2025 seasons illustrate exactly that kind of range in practice: 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns in one year, 707 yards and 2 touchdowns in the next.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP on Thomas is 72.2, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 6.12 in a 12-team snake draft. His overall rank is #63 overall and his position rank is WR28. If you want him, the market is pricing him in the sixth round. Plan accordingly: at that draft slot, you are committing a mid-round pick to a receiver whose upside is genuine but whose outcome band is wide. Know the floor before you spend the pick.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 87 passes on 133 targets for 1,282 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns, adding 48 rushing yards on 6 carries.
His 2025 line was lower across every major category: 91 targets, 48 receptions, 707 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns, with 21 rushing yards on 3 carries and 1 rushing touchdown.
The top 10% of simulated seasons projects to 208.8 half-PPR points; the bottom 10% projects to 58.2. The median simulated season is 136.8 points.
Market ADP is 72.2, which works out to pick 6.12 in a 12-team draft. That is the round where the market is currently taking him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
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