#155 overall · TB · 229.7 projected half-PPR pts · -31.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 151.0
Baker Mayfield — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Baker Mayfield has been one of the more durable and volume-heavy quarterbacks in the league over the past three seasons. He has cleared 540 pass attempts in each of the last three years, averaging 559.7 attempts and 4,079 pass yards per season across that stretch. The 2024 season was his best of the three: 41 passing touchdowns, 4,500 yards, and 378 rush yards on 60 carries. His rushing contribution is real and consistent, averaging 307.7 rush yards and 1.7 rush touchdowns per season over the three-year window. For a drafter who needs a late-round quarterback with a proven floor of volume, the track record is there.
What the model projects
The projection is 229.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Mayfield at #155 overall and QB16, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -31.6, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 229.7 sits above the median simulated season of 214.3, reflecting the asymmetry in his outcome distribution.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 566 | 364 | 4044 | 28 | 10 | 62 | 163 | 1 | 7 | 280.1 |
| 2024 | 570 | 407 | 4500 | 41 | 16 | 60 | 378 | 3 | 11 | 379.8 |
| 2025 | 543 | 343 | 3693 | 26 | 11 | 55 | 382 | 1 | 11 | 278.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 559.7 | 371.3 | 4079 | 31.7 | 12.3 | 59 | 307.7 | 1.7 | 9.7 | 318.6 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the bottom 10% of outcomes, Mayfield finishes at 84.4 points, a number that reflects how badly a quarterback season can collapse under the right circumstances. The 25th percentile is 155.4 points. The median sits at 214.3. At the 75th percentile he reaches 285.2 points, and in a top-10% season he hits 344.6. That 260-point spread between p10 and p90 signals meaningful variance. The 2025 season, in which he threw for 3,693 yards and 26 touchdowns against 11 interceptions, illustrates the lower end of what his recent range looks like. The 2024 season, with 41 touchdowns and 4,500 yards, illustrates the upper end. Both are real data points, and both live inside this band.
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(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Mayfield at an average of pick 151.0, which works out to the 13th round, 7th pick in a 12-team draft (13.07). That adp is drawn from two platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a settled consensus. He carries a negative draft value at QB16, so he is a depth option rather than a cornerstone. His bye falls in Week 10, worth noting when building a roster around him. If you are streaming quarterbacks or carrying two, his volume floor and occasional rushing upside make him a reasonable late target at that draft slot.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 559.7 pass attempts, 371.3 completions, and 4,079 pass yards per season across 2023 through 2025. He has cleared 540 attempts in each individual season, making him one of the more consistent volume passers in recent history.
The simulated outcome band runs from 84.4 points at the 10th percentile to 344.6 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 214.3 points. His actual 2024 season (41 passing touchdowns, 4,500 yards, 378 rush yards) represents the high end of that range; his 2025 season (26 touchdowns, 3,693 yards) sits closer to the lower portion.
The market average is pick 151.0, or round 13, pick 7 in a 12-team draft. That figure comes from two platforms, so it is a directional read rather than a deep consensus. He is a late-round quarterback option at current draft prices.
The projection places him at QB16 with a draft value of -31.6, which is below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. He projects as a depth or streaming option rather than a weekly starter you build around.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
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Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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