#146 overall · MIN · 87.8 projected half-PPR pts · -27.9 Draft Value
T.J. Hockenson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2023 season is the anchor. Hockenson caught 95 of 127 targets for 960 yards and 5 touchdowns that year, a workload that established him as a legitimate top-end tight end option. That production is real, it is recent, and it sits in the three-year aggregate as the high-water mark that pulls the averages up. The three-year averages across 2023-2025 land at 62.3 receptions, 617.7 receiving yards, and 2.7 touchdowns per season. A drafter who believes the 2023 version is closer to his true level than the reduced lines of 2024 and 2025 has a factual basis for that conviction. Minnesota keeps him in a pass-catching role, and the target share in 2025 (66 targets, 51 receptions) shows he remained involved even in a quieter year.
What the model projects
The projection is 90.0 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below the median simulated season of 98.3 points, which reflects the shape of the outcome distribution rather than a contradiction. The draft value is -32.3, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That places Hockenson at TE17 and #159 overall, in Tier 9. The point estimate of 90.0 points is the headline number to carry into draft prep.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 127 | 95 | 960 | 5 | 1 | 171.5 |
| 2024 | 62 | 41 | 455 | — | — | 66.0 |
| 2025 | 66 | 51 | 438 | 3 | — | 87.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 85 | 62.3 | 617.7 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 109.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 37.8 points, a figure that reflects how low the floor can go. The 25th percentile is 65.2 points. The median simulated season is 98.3 points. The 75th percentile reaches 121.2 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 149.8 points. That upper end, anchored by the 2023 comp in his own history, is meaningful. The spread from p10 to p90 runs 112.0 points, which is a substantial range. Drafters need to decide which part of that band they are underwriting when they spend a pick here.
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our projection
How to draft him
Hockenson does not have a market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. There is no pick-cost signal to work with. What the rankings say is clear: TE17 and #159 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -32.3. At that position in the rankings, he is a late-round or undrafted consideration in most 12-team formats. The case for rostering him rests entirely on the upside band and the belief that his 2023 production is recoverable. The case against is that the projection sits below replacement level, and two consecutive reduced seasons are the more recent data. Treat him as a speculative add rather than a planned starter, and do not reach for him ahead of where the rankings place him.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 90.0 points and a draft value of -32.3 put him below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format, ranking him TE17 and #159 overall. That profile makes him a speculative option rather than a reliable starter. His 2023 season (95 receptions, 960 yards, 5 touchdowns) shows the upside exists, but the three-year average of 62.3 receptions and 617.7 yards reflects two quieter seasons since then.
The top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 149.8 points. The 75th percentile is 121.2 points. Those numbers are grounded in a history that includes a 127-target, 960-yard season in 2023, so the ceiling is real. The question is probability: the median simulated season is 98.3 points, and 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 37.8 points.
In 2023 he posted 95 receptions, 127 targets, 960 yards, and 5 touchdowns. In 2025 those numbers were 51 receptions, 66 targets, 438 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The three-year average across 2023-2025 is 62.3 receptions, 85 targets, 617.7 yards, and 2.7 touchdowns per season, which shows how much the 2023 peak pulls the averages above the more recent baselines.
There is no market ADP available for Hockenson, so there is no consistent draft-pick cost to report. The rankings place him at TE17 and #159 overall in Tier 9. In most 12-team drafts, that range corresponds to the late rounds, and he may go undrafted in shallower leagues.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.