#196 overall · CHI · 67.0 projected half-PPR pts · -48.3 Draft Value
Luther Burden — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Luther Burden is a young wide receiver in Chicago with one NFL season on record. In 2025 he caught 47 passes on 60 targets for 652 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, adding 37 rushing yards on 6 carries. That is a real foundation: a 78.3% catch rate on a modest target share, with a touch of rushing involvement that keeps defenses honest. The Bears' offense has room to grow around him, and a receiver who produced those numbers as a rookie-level contributor has a credible path to a larger role. The upside case is not built on projection alone; it is built on what he already did.
What the model projects
The projection is 128.2 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at exactly +0.0, placing him at #75 overall and WR33 in Tier 9. That is a replacement-level projection at the position: he is priced in at the margin, not as a surplus asset. The median simulated season (p50) lands at 128.7 points, essentially in line with the point estimate. He carries a bye in Week 10.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 60 | 47 | 652 | 2 | 6 | 37 | 104.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 60 | 47 | 652 | 2 | 6 | 37 | 104.4 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is the defining feature of Burden's profile. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons produces just 53.2 points, a near-total bust. The 25th percentile is 88.2 points, still a disappointing fantasy season. The median sits at 128.7. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 163.4 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons hits 202.7. That p90 number represents a genuine WR2 season. The gap between the floor and the ceiling is nearly 150 points, so drafters are taking on real variance. This is a high-dispersion profile, not a safe floor play.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Burden at pick 55.3 on average, which works out to the 7th pick of the 5th round in a 12-team draft (5.07). He sits at #75 overall in our rankings. Plan accordingly: if you want him, the market will ask for a 5th-round pick. Given his wide outcome band, he fits best as a depth or upside selection rather than a core starter. His bye in Week 10 is worth noting for roster management. Draft him with eyes open on the variance: the floor is real, and so is the ceiling.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 47 passes on 60 targets for 652 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns. He also added 6 rush attempts for 37 yards. That is his only NFL season on record, and the 3-year aggregate matches those same numbers exactly.
The projection is 128.2 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #75 overall and WR33, sitting in Tier 9 with a draft value of +0.0, which is exactly replacement level at the wide receiver position.
The band runs from 53.2 points at the 10th percentile to 202.7 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 128.7 points. The top-10% outcome at 202.7 points represents a strong WR2 season, but the bottom-10% outcome at 53.2 points is a near-total bust.
The market average draft position is 55.3, which translates to pick 5.07 in a 12-team draft. That is the 7th pick of the 5th round. Plan to spend a pick there if you want him; that is where he is currently going.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.