#308 overall · PIT · 175.3 projected half-PPR pts · -72.5 Draft Value
Aaron Rodgers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Aaron Rodgers is now with Pittsburgh, and the 2024 season offers the clearest recent evidence of what a full workload looks like: 584 pass attempts, 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. In 2025 he posted 498 attempts, 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, adding a rushing touchdown on 21 carries for 61 yards. The three-year averages tell a consistent story: 361 attempts, 2,406.3 yards, and 17.3 passing touchdowns per season, with the 2023 figure dragging those averages down considerably given just one pass attempt that year. Strip that season out and the two full seasons show a quarterback who can still produce at a meaningful volume. For a drafter building a late-roster QB spot, that production floor is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 175.3 half-PPR fantasy points. Rodgers sits at QB27 and #306 overall, placed in Tier 9. His draft value is -86.0, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 175.3 sits above the median simulated season of 146.8, which signals the distribution is skewed toward the upside rather than centered on the headline number.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 584 | 368 | 3897 | 28 | 11 | 22 | 107 | — | 5 | 263.6 |
| 2025 | 498 | 327 | 3322 | 24 | 7 | 21 | 61 | 1 | 4 | 231.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 361 | 231.7 | 2406.3 | 17.3 | 6 | 14.3 | 56 | 0.3 | 3 | 166.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the 10th percentile, simulated seasons bottom out at 47.8 points, a figure that reflects how badly things can go. The 25th percentile reaches 98.4 points, still well short of a usable fantasy season. The median simulated season lands at 146.8 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 223.8 points and the 90th percentile reaches 290.2 points. That 242.4-point spread between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes is among the widest variance profiles a drafter will encounter at the position. The floor is genuinely low; the ceiling is a functional QB1 week. Drafters need to be comfortable holding both possibilities simultaneously.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Rodgers does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms that feed this data. In practice, that makes him a free agent in most drafts: if you want him, you can likely wait until the final rounds or claim him off the waiver wire entirely. His bye is Week 9. Given the negative draft value and the wide outcome band, the realistic use case is as a late-roster handcuff or a streaming option, not a primary starter. Commit to a starter earlier in the draft and treat this roster spot accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 175.3 points with a draft value of -86.0, placing him at QB27 and #306 overall in Tier 9. That negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at quarterback in a 12-team half-PPR format, so the numbers do not support using him as a primary starter.
In 2024 he threw for 3,897 yards and 28 touchdowns on 584 attempts with 11 interceptions. In 2025 he posted 3,322 yards and 24 touchdowns on 498 attempts with 7 interceptions, adding a rushing touchdown. The three-year averages (which include a 2023 season of just one pass attempt) come to 361 attempts, 2,406.3 yards, and 17.3 passing touchdowns per season.
Very wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season is 47.8 points; the 90th percentile is 290.2 points. The median simulated season is 146.8 points, which is below the point estimate of 175.3. A drafter should expect significant season-to-season variance.
Rodgers has no market ADP in public 2026 drafts, meaning he is not being consistently selected across the platforms that produce this data. He is effectively available in the final rounds or as a post-draft waiver addition in most leagues.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.