#306 overall · ARI · 43.6 projected half-PPR pts · -71.6 Draft Value
Kendrick Bourne — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Kendrick Bourne lands at WR104 in a new home with the Arizona Cardinals. The case for him is thin by design: he is a depth receiver with a three-year average of 48.7 targets, 34 receptions, 420.7 receiving yards, and 1.7 receiving touchdowns per season. His best recent campaign came in 2025, when he posted 53 targets, 37 receptions, and 551 receiving yards. That is a real production floor for a receiver who has shown he can hold a role when given one. His bye falls on Week 14, which is late enough to avoid most playoff schedules. If you are filling out a roster's final receiver spots, Bourne is a known commodity with a recent season of legitimate volume behind him.
What the model projects
The projection is 43.5 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That sits at #307 overall and WR104, inside Tier 9. His draft value is -84.6, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect where he stands in the rankings: a fringe roster option, not a starter.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 55 | 37 | 406 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 81.5 |
| 2024 | 38 | 28 | 305 | 1 | 1 | 6 | — | 51.1 |
| 2025 | 53 | 37 | 551 | — | — | — | — | 73.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 48.7 | 34 | 420.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 69.6 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons lands at 0.0 points, and the 25th percentile is just 8.9. The median simulated season comes in at 25.8 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 57.8 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons reaches 96.3. That p90 number is real, but the distribution makes clear that the most likely outcomes cluster well below it. The gap between the median and the 90th percentile is large, which means the upside is genuine but requires things to break right. Most simulated seasons end with very little fantasy production.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Bourne does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms tracked. In a 12-team half-PPR snake draft, he is a late-round or undrafted name. At WR104 and #307 overall with a negative draft value, he belongs at the very back of a roster if he belongs on one at all. Draft him only if you need a final receiver spot and are comfortable with a median outcome near 26 points. The p90 ceiling of 96.3 points is the only reason to keep him on a watch list.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 43.5 points with a draft value of -84.6, placing him at WR104 and #307 overall in Tier 9. That is below replacement level, so he is not a recommended roster target. His median simulated season is 25.8 points, and the bottom quarter of outcomes land at 8.9 or fewer.
Over the past three seasons he has averaged 48.7 targets and 34 receptions per year. His 2025 season was his strongest of the three, with 53 targets, 37 receptions, and 551 receiving yards. His 2024 season was lighter at 38 targets and 28 receptions.
The 90th percentile of simulated seasons lands at 96.3 half-PPR points. That is the top 10 percent of outcomes. The 75th percentile is 57.8 points. Both numbers require favorable conditions; the median outcome is 25.8 points.
He has no market ADP across tracked platforms, meaning he is not being consistently drafted in public 2026 leagues. He is a late-round or undrafted option. Given his Tier 9 placement and negative draft value, he fits only as a final roster filler if at all.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.