#307 overall · SF · 43.1 projected half-PPR pts · -72.1 Draft Value
Demarcus Robinson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Demarcus Robinson is a veteran receiver with three seasons of NFL production on his resume. His best year came in 2024, when he caught 31 of 64 targets for 505 yards and 7 touchdowns. That touchdown rate is the clearest argument in his favor: he has averaged 4 receiving touchdowns per season over the past three years, and touchdowns are the fastest path to fantasy relevance for a receiver operating outside a featured role. His three-year averages of 46 targets, 26.3 receptions, and 384 receiving yards per season paint a consistent picture of a player who finds his way onto the field and contributes in the red zone when opportunity presents itself.
What the model projects
The projection is 44.4 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. Robinson sits at WR102 and #303 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -83.8, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week is Week 8.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 39 | 26 | 371 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 74.4 |
| 2024 | 64 | 31 | 505 | 7 | — | — | — | 108.0 |
| 2025 | 35 | 22 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 6 | — | 45.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 46 | 26.3 | 384 | 4 | 0.7 | 9.7 | 0.7 | 76.5 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The median simulated season lands at 26.7 points, well below the 44.4 point projection. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finishes at 0.0 points, and the 25th percentile is just 9.5 points, meaning a quarter of simulated seasons produce almost nothing. The upside exists but requires things to break right: the 75th percentile is 58.7 points and the 90th percentile reaches 97.6 points. That top-decile outcome reflects the touchdown dependency that defines his profile. Most simulated seasons cluster near zero or low single digits; the right side of the distribution is where the value lives, and it is a narrow corridor.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Robinson does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In a standard snake draft, he is a late-round or post-draft addition, the kind of receiver you add to a roster after your core is built. His negative draft value means the projection does not clear replacement level, so he belongs at the back of a queue, rostered only if your receiver depth requires a speculative touchdown-upside add. His Week 8 bye is worth noting when constructing your schedule.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The projection of 44.4 points and a draft value of -83.8 place him below replacement level at wide receiver, ranked WR102. He is a speculative add, not a core roster piece. The median simulated season is 26.7 points, and a quarter of simulated seasons produce 9.5 points or fewer.
The 90th-percentile simulated season reaches 97.6 points, and his 2024 season of 505 yards and 7 touchdowns shows what a favorable year looks like. That upside is real but narrow; the distribution is heavily skewed, with the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finishing at 0.0 points.
Robinson has no market ADP in public 2026 drafts, meaning he is not being selected consistently enough to produce a median draft position. He is a post-draft or final-round target, not a pick you need to plan around.
His three-year averages are 46 targets, 26.3 receptions, 384 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns per season. The volume is modest and steady, but 2025 saw a step back to 35 targets, 22 receptions, 276 yards, and 1 touchdown, which is the most recent data point in his history.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.