#140 overall · KC · 89.4 projected half-PPR pts · -25.8 Draft Value
Xavier Worthy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Xavier Worthy's 2024 season is the anchor for any optimistic read: 98 targets, 59 receptions, 638 receiving yards, 6 receiving touchdowns, and another 20 rush attempts for 104 yards and 3 rushing scores. That is a genuine dual-threat role in a high-functioning offense. The three-year averages back it up: 85.5 targets, 50.5 receptions, 585 receiving yards, and 3.5 receiving touchdowns per season, with a consistent rushing layer on top. The target volume in 2024 is the number to hold onto. A receiver who sees 98 targets in a season has a real path to fantasy relevance, and Worthy has already walked it once.
What the model projects
The projection is 112.8 half-PPR points. That sits below replacement level for the position: the draft value is -15.4, which places Worthy at WR50 and #115 overall in Tier 9. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 106.5 points, close to the point estimate. The projection reflects a step back from his 2024 output: 2025 brought 73 targets, 42 receptions, 532 receiving yards, and just 1 receiving touchdown, with the rushing role also contracting to 11 attempts and 87 yards. The three-year averages sit between those two seasons, and the projection lands in that same range.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 98 | 59 | 638 | 6 | 20 | 104 | 3 | 157.7 |
| 2025 | 73 | 42 | 532 | 1 | 11 | 87 | — | 88.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 85.5 | 50.5 | 585 | 3.5 | 15.5 | 95.5 | 1.5 | 123.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 39.5 points, a near-irrelevant fantasy season. The 25th percentile is 69.2 points, still well below the replacement threshold. The median is 106.5 points. Things get meaningfully more interesting in the upper half: the 75th percentile reaches 141.8 points, and the 90th percentile climbs to 185.8. That top-decile outcome would represent a return to something close to his 2024 form. The gap between the p10 and p90 is 146.3 points, which signals a player whose season depends heavily on which version shows up. The downside is real and the floor is low; the upside is legitimate but not guaranteed.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Worthy's market ADP is 112.2, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 10.04 in a 12-team draft. His bye is Week 5, worth noting for roster management in the early going. He sits at #115 overall and WR50 in Tier 9. At pick 10.04, a drafter is spending a mid-to-late-round selection on a player the projection places below replacement level, with a wide outcome band. The upside at the 90th percentile is real, but the floor at the 10th percentile is very low. He fits best as a depth or upside add in the final rounds of a draft, not as a player you count on for a starting lineup from week one.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he posted 98 targets, 59 receptions, 638 receiving yards, 6 receiving touchdowns, 20 rush attempts, 104 rush yards, and 3 rushing scores. In 2025 those numbers contracted to 73 targets, 42 receptions, 532 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown, 11 rush attempts, and 87 rush yards.
The projection is 112.8 half-PPR points. The band runs from 39.5 (p10) to 185.8 (p90), with a median simulated season of 106.5 points. The 25th percentile is 69.2 and the 75th is 141.8, reflecting a wide range of possible outcomes.
He is WR50 and #115 overall in Tier 9. His draft value is -15.4, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
His market ADP is 112.2 across two platforms, which works out to pick 10.04 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, that is roughly when you would need to spend a pick to secure him.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
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