#138 overall · GB · 90.4 projected half-PPR pts · -25.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 78.2
Tucker Kraft — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tucker Kraft has done something meaningful over three seasons in Green Bay: he has grown. His 2023 debut produced 31 catches for 355 yards and 2 touchdowns on 40 targets. In 2024 those numbers jumped to 50 receptions, 707 yards, and 7 touchdowns on 70 targets. The 2025 line was leaner at 32 catches, 489 yards, and 6 touchdowns on 44 targets, but the touchdown rate held. Averaged across all three years, Kraft has pulled in 37.7 receptions, 517 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns per season on 51.3 targets. That is a tight end who has demonstrated a real role in the passing game and a consistent presence near the end zone. Six receiving touchdowns in 2025 on just 44 targets is a scoring efficiency that keeps him relevant even when volume dips.
What the model projects
The projection for Kraft is 109.8 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -10.2, placing him #99 overall and TE10 in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That context matters: TE10 is a depth-of-position question as much as it is a talent question, and the projection reflects where the numbers currently land, not a ceiling call.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 40 | 31 | 355 | 2 | — | 63.0 |
| 2024 | 70 | 50 | 707 | 7 | 1 | 136.3 |
| 2025 | 44 | 32 | 489 | 6 | — | 101.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 51.3 | 37.7 | 517 | 5 | 0.3 | 100.9 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band for Kraft is wide, which is consistent with a tight end whose production has swung meaningfully year to year. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons lands at 54.6 points, a figure that reflects how thin a low-target, low-touchdown campaign can look in half-PPR. The 25th percentile is 84.9 points. The median simulated season is 120.3 points, a step above the 109.8 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 142.7 points, and the top 10 percent of outcomes climbs to 170.2 points. That upper band is a genuinely useful tight end season. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is more than 115 points, so the drafter who lands Kraft is accepting real variance in exchange for the upside that his touchdown history makes plausible.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Kraft at pick 82.8 on average, which works out to round 7, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him. His bye is Week 11, so plan your roster depth accordingly for that stretch. Given the wide outcome band, Kraft fits best as a streamer-capable TE2 on rosters where the starter is locked in early. If you are building toward a late-round tight end, round 7 is the window the market has set.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 51.3 targets per season over three years, with a peak of 70 in 2024 and a low of 40 in his 2023 rookie campaign. His 2025 season came in at 44 targets.
Kraft has scored at least 2 receiving touchdowns in every season, with 7 in 2024 and 6 in 2025. His three-year average is 5 receiving touchdowns per season, and his 2025 rate of 6 scores on 44 targets reflects strong efficiency near the end zone.
The point estimate is 109.8 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season is 120.3 points. The band runs from 54.6 points at the 10th percentile to 170.2 points at the 90th percentile, a spread of more than 115 points that signals meaningful season-to-season variance.
Based on market ADP across two platforms, Kraft is going at pick 82.8 on average, which is round 7, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick cost the market is currently setting for him.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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