#193 overall · TEN · 63.6 projected half-PPR pts · -46.6 Draft Value
Tyjae Spears — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tyjae Spears has been a consistent receiving option out of the Tennessee backfield across three NFL seasons. His 2023 debut stands as his most productive year: 100 rush attempts, 453 rush yards, 52 receptions on 70 targets, and 385 receiving yards. The receiving volume in particular is real. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he has averaged 51.7 targets and 42.3 receptions per season, numbers that reflect a genuine role in the passing game rather than a token one. His three-year averages also include 85.3 rush attempts, 349.3 rush yards, and 2.7 rushing touchdowns per season. That is a modest but established workload. For a drafter hunting late-round depth with a pass-catching floor, the target history is the most credible thing on his resume.
What the model projects
The projection is 76.9 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draft value is -51.9, which places him below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That produces a ranking of RB46 and #215 overall, inside Tier 9. The projection is close to his three-year median output, which is consistent with a player whose role has remained relatively stable without a breakout. His bye week is Week 9.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 100 | 453 | 2 | 70 | 52 | 385 | 1 | 1 | 127.8 |
| 2024 | 84 | 312 | 4 | 35 | 30 | 224 | 1 | — | 98.6 |
| 2025 | 72 | 283 | 2 | 50 | 45 | 264 | — | — | 89.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 85.3 | 349.3 | 2.7 | 51.7 | 42.3 | 291 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 105.6 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is typical for a back in a depth role. The p10 outcome is 11.2 points, a near-total absence from the fantasy stat sheet. The p25 sits at 33.6 points. The median simulated season lands at 72.1 points, close to but slightly below the 76.9 point projection. The p75 outcome reaches 114.4 points, and the p90 outcome climbs to 161.2 points. That top-decile number represents a scenario where volume and opportunity expand meaningfully. The gap between the p10 and p90 is 150.0 points, a spread that reflects how dependent his fantasy value is on circumstances that can shift quickly in a backfield. The floor is very low; the ceiling is real but requires things to break right.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently drafting Spears at pick 155.9, which works out to the 13th round, 12th pick in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is deep in any draft. His ranking is #215 overall and RB46. At that draft slot, he is a late-round flier on a back with a documented receiving role. His value in any given week depends heavily on opportunity, and the band makes clear that the downside is severe. Draft him as a depth piece with upside tied to his pass-catching history, and manage expectations accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
The receiving history is genuine. Over three seasons (2023-2025) he has averaged 51.7 targets and 42.3 receptions per year. His best season, 2023, produced 70 targets and 52 receptions for 385 yards. Even in 2025 he caught 45 of 50 targets for 264 yards. That is a consistent pass-catching presence, not a token role.
The p90 simulated outcome is 161.2 half-PPR points, meaning roughly one in ten simulated seasons reaches that level or higher. The p75 outcome is 114.4 points. Those are the upside markers the model produces for him.
The market median is pick 155.9, round 13, pick 12 in a 12-team draft, based on two platforms. He is a late-round target with no urgency until the final rounds of your draft.
Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 85.3 rush attempts and 349.3 rush yards per year. His single-season high was 100 attempts for 453 yards in 2023. The 2024 and 2025 seasons came in at 84 and 72 attempts respectively, with 312 and 283 rush yards.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.