Wil Lutz — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Wil Lutz has been one of the more consistent kickers in the league over the three seasons on record. He has averaged 29.7 field goals and 38 extra points per year from 2023 through 2025, on 33.3 attempts per season with just 2.7 misses per year. That accuracy floor is real. In 2024 he connected on 31 of 34 field goal attempts and converted all 46 extra point tries, his cleanest season of the three. The 50-plus yard range is present too: he has hit at least 3 field goals from beyond 50 yards in each of the last three seasons, including 5 in 2024. Denver's altitude is a known factor for kickers, and Lutz has operated in that environment throughout this stretch.

What the model projects

The projection is 119.0 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That puts Lutz at K11 and #224 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -56.5, which is below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 119.0 sits close to the median simulated season of 117.1, so the projection and the typical outcome are well aligned.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide, as it tends to be at the kicker position. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons lands at 50.7 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 89.6. The median is 117.1. From there the upside climbs to 140.7 at the 75th percentile and 151.1 at the 90th percentile. The gap between a bad season and a great one spans roughly 100 points, which reflects how much kicker scoring depends on team offense, game script, and red-zone efficiency in any given year. The three-year history shows Lutz has consistently operated near the upper half of that band, but the downside tail is real.

How to draft him

The market is placing Lutz at an average draft position of 417.4, which works out to pick 35.09 in a 12-team draft. That is well into the 35th round, a range that exists only in very deep or keeper formats. In a standard redraft league, kickers are typically taken in the final round, and Lutz is no exception. His negative draft value means the model does not see him projecting above replacement level at the position, so there is no urgency to prioritize him over other late-round needs. If you are in a format deep enough that pick 35.09 is a real slot, that is when the market says you would need to spend on him. Note that adp here is drawn from only 2 platforms, so treat the exact number as directional rather than precise.

Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 2.7 misses per year on 33.3 attempts, making him one of the more reliable kickers by that measure. In 2024 specifically he missed just 2 of 34 attempts and converted all 46 extra point tries.

The altitude factor is part of his context. He has hit at least 3 field goals from 50-plus yards in each of the last three seasons, with a high of 5 in 2024, so the long-range volume is present in the historical record.

The projection is 119.0 half-PPR points. The median simulated season is 117.1, very close to that estimate. The 10th-percentile outcome is 50.7 and the 90th-percentile outcome is 151.1, a spread of about 100 points that reflects the inherent volatility of the position.

The market ADP is 417.4, or pick 35.09 in a 12-team draft. In a standard redraft format that pick does not exist, so he goes undrafted until the final round. Only in very deep or keeper leagues does the timing become a real decision, and even then the model's draft value of -56.5 signals he projects below replacement level at the position.