#219 overall · BUF · 56.0 projected half-PPR pts · -54.2 Draft Value
Ty Johnson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Ty Johnson is a Buffalo RB with three consecutive seasons of receiving work on his resume. His target totals have climbed each year: 7 in 2023, 25 in 2024, 33 in 2025. Receptions followed the same arc, from 7 to 18 to 24. That receiving thread is the only realistic path to fantasy relevance for a back at this roster depth, and Johnson has demonstrated he can be part of it. His 2025 season produced 263 receiving yards, 200 rushing yards, 3 rush touchdowns, and 2 receiving touchdowns on 50 carries and 33 targets. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 21.7 targets, 16.3 receptions, 203 receiving yards, and 1.3 rush touchdowns per season. For a drafter hunting late-round depth with a receiving floor, that history is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 45.0 half-PPR points for 2026. That sits at RB64 and #299 overall, placing Johnson in Tier 9. His draft value is -82.8, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number reflects a role that is real but limited: Johnson has produced, and the projection acknowledges it, but the volume ceiling keeps the point estimate modest.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 30 | 132 | — | 7 | 7 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 28.9 |
| 2024 | 41 | 213 | 1 | 25 | 18 | 284 | 3 | — | 82.7 |
| 2025 | 50 | 200 | 3 | 33 | 24 | 263 | 2 | 1 | 88.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 40.3 | 181.7 | 1.3 | 21.7 | 16.3 | 203 | 2 | 0.7 | 66.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The p10 is 0.0 points, meaning in the worst 10 percent of simulated seasons Johnson contributes nothing. The p25 is 8.8 points and the median (p50) is 27.7 points. The upside tail is meaningful: the p75 reaches 67.0 points and the p90 hits 102.9 points. That shape tells the story of a depth back. Most simulated seasons land well below the 45.0-point projection, but the top outcomes are real. A drafter who lands Johnson is largely betting on the high end of that band materializing, not on the median.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Johnson does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough to produce one. He is a free agent in most drafts, available off the waiver wire or as a late addition. His bye is Week 7. Given the negative draft value and the wide outcome band, he fits as a handcuff or a speculative final-round add rather than a planned roster spot. If the upside scenario develops, the p90 of 102.9 points is a usable season. If it does not, the p50 of 27.7 points is the more likely result.
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Questions drafters ask
Yes, and it is the core of his case. His targets grew from 7 in 2023 to 25 in 2024 to 33 in 2025, and he caught 24 of those 33 targets last season for 263 receiving yards. The three-year average is 21.7 targets and 203 receiving yards per season. That is a real receiving role, even if the volume is limited.
The model projects 45.0 half-PPR points. That ranks him RB64 and #299 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -82.8, which is below replacement level for the position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The band runs from 0.0 points at the p10 to 102.9 points at the p90. The median simulated season is 27.7 points. The worst 10 percent of simulated seasons produce nothing, so the floor is real and low.
Johnson does not have a market ADP in 2026 public drafts. He is not being selected consistently enough across platforms to generate one, so he is effectively available as a waiver-wire or end-of-draft add in most leagues.
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Beyond the rankings
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.