#220 overall · ARI · 55.5 projected half-PPR pts · -54.7 Draft Value
Tyler Allgeier — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Allgeier has logged three consecutive seasons with at least 137 rush attempts, and his 2025 campaign produced a career-high 8 rushing touchdowns on 143 carries. The three-year averages tell a consistent story: 155.3 rush attempts, 613.7 rush yards, and 5 rushing touchdowns per season. He is not a receiving back by profile, but he has averaged 15 receptions and 125.7 receiving yards per year over that same stretch. The touchdown rate in 2025 is the clearest argument in his favor. A back who finds the end zone 8 times on 143 carries has demonstrated goal-line presence, and that kind of efficiency can sustain fantasy value even when volume is modest.
What the model projects
The projection is 71.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below replacement level at the running back position, reflected in a draft value of -56.1 and a ranking of RB49, #221 overall, in Tier 9. The median simulated season lands at 64.3 points, slightly below the point estimate. Those numbers place Allgeier firmly in the late-roster tier of running backs for 2026 drafts.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 186 | 683 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 193 | 1 | 126.6 |
| 2024 | 137 | 644 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 88 | — | 97.7 |
| 2025 | 143 | 514 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 96 | — | 116.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 155.3 | 613.7 | 5 | 17.3 | 15 | 125.7 | 0.3 | 113.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 9.1 points. The 25th percentile is 29.2 points. The median is 64.3 points. The 75th percentile reaches 106.3 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 151.1 points. That spread from 9.1 to 151.1 is substantial, which reflects how much his fantasy value depends on workload and touchdown rate holding up. The upside at p90 is real; so is the floor at p10. Drafters should treat him as a high-variance late pick rather than a reliable floor option.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is placing Allgeier at pick 143.3 on average, which works out to round 12, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is the window where you would need to spend a pick to secure him. At RB49 and #221 overall, he is a depth add at best in standard 12-team half-PPR formats. His bye is Week 14, which falls during the fantasy playoff window in most leagues, so factor that into roster construction if you do roster him. He fits as a late-round handcuff or touchdown-upside stash, not as a player you build around.
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Questions drafters ask
The model has him at RB49 and #221 overall with a projected 71.4 points and a draft value of -56.1, which is below replacement level. The market is taking him around pick 143.3, or round 12, pick 11. He is a depth option, not a starter, but the wide outcome band (p90 of 151.1 points) means there is real upside if workload and touchdowns align.
Allgeier scored 8 rushing touchdowns in 2025 on 143 carries, 3 in 2024 on 137 carries, and 4 in 2023 on 186 carries. His three-year average is 5 rushing touchdowns per season, with a receiving touchdown average of 0.3 per year over that same stretch.
His receiving work has been limited. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 15 receptions, 17.3 targets, and 125.7 receiving yards per year. In 2024 he caught all 13 of his targets for 88 yards; in 2025 he caught 14 of 16 targets for 96 yards. He is not a featured pass-catcher by volume.
The p10 outcome is 9.1 half-PPR points for the season, and the p25 is 29.2 points. The band is wide, so a bad season for Allgeier can be very bad. Drafters targeting him late should do so with the understanding that the floor is near zero fantasy value.
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Beyond the rankings
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