#136 overall · ATL · 85.1 projected half-PPR pts · -25.1 Draft Value
Brian Robinson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Brian Robinson is now in Atlanta after spending his first three NFL seasons in Washington. The historical record shows a back who logged 178 rush attempts in 2023 and 187 in 2024, totaling 733 and 799 rushing yards respectively in those campaigns. The 2024 season added eight rushing touchdowns, the clearest peak in his scoring profile. His three-year averages across 2023-2025 sit at 152.3 rush attempts, 644 rushing yards, 5 rushing touchdowns, and 21.3 receptions per season. That is a workhorse usage pattern when healthy, and the touchdown production in 2024 demonstrated genuine red-zone presence. The receiving side is modest but real: 36 receptions for 368 yards and four receiving touchdowns in 2023 showed he can contribute as a pass-catcher when the role is there.
What the model projects
The projection is 91.6 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. The draft value is -36.3, placing Robinson #169 overall and RB40 in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 90.7 points, very close to the point estimate, which signals a relatively symmetric distribution around that central number. Robinson has a bye in Week 11.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 178 | 733 | 5 | 43 | 36 | 368 | 4 | 4 | 178.1 |
| 2024 | 187 | 799 | 8 | 25 | 20 | 159 | — | 2 | 149.8 |
| 2025 | 92 | 400 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 25 | — | — | 58.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 152.3 | 644 | 5 | 26.7 | 21.3 | 184 | 1.3 | 2 | 131.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces just 19.4 points, essentially a non-factor campaign. The 25th percentile comes in at 47.0 points, still a deeply disappointing result for any roster spot. The median sits at 90.7 points. Moving up the band, the 75th percentile reaches 134.0 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons reaches 181.4 points. That upper tail is meaningful: a 181.4-point season would represent genuine fantasy value. The spread from p10 to p90 spans roughly 162 points, reflecting the high variance attached to this projection. The floor is very low; the ceiling is real but requires things to break right.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Robinson's market ADP is 160.0, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 14.04 in a 12-team snake draft. That is a 14th-round pick. At that stage of a draft, roster spots are being used on upside plays and handcuff insurance rather than locked-in contributors. Robinson fits that framing: the projection and draft value are below replacement level, but the top-end band at 181.4 points shows the ceiling exists. If you are building depth in the late rounds and want a back with a three-year history of 150-plus carries and double-digit touchdown potential in a good year, Robinson is a name to track. Expect to spend a 14th-round pick to get him at current market rates.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 91.6 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -36.3, meaning the projection falls 36.3 points below replacement level at running back in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks RB40 and #169 overall in Tier 9.
He carried the ball 178 times in 2023 and 187 times in 2024, with 733 and 799 rushing yards in those seasons respectively. His 2025 line was 92 rush attempts for 400 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. The three-year average is 152.3 rush attempts and 644 rushing yards per season.
The 90th-percentile simulated season produces 181.4 half-PPR fantasy points. The 75th percentile is 134.0 points. Those outcomes require a favorable scenario, but the band confirms the upside exists.
His market ADP is 160.0 across two platforms, which works out to pick 14.04 in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to spend a 14th-round pick if you want to secure him.
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Beyond the rankings
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