#939 overall · KC · 71.5 projected half-PPR pts · -176.3 Draft Value
Justin Fields — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Justin Fields is a QB with a genuine dual-threat profile. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 85.7 rush attempts and 443 rush yards per year, and his 2023 season showed what a full workload looks like: 124 rush attempts, 657 rush yards, and 20 combined touchdowns. That rushing floor is real, and it is the reason he belongs on any roster that needs late-depth at the position. His 2025 line of 71 rush attempts, 383 rush yards, and 4 rush touchdowns confirms the ground game has not disappeared. For a drafter hunting a QB with upside beyond the passing stat line, Fields is one of the few options at this tier who can score on his legs.
What the model projects
The projection is 71.5 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That places Fields at QB35 and #905 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -189.0, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate reflects a stat profile that, across three seasons, has averaged 1,642.3 pass yards, 9.3 pass touchdowns, 4.3 rush touchdowns, and 3.7 interceptions per year. The 2025 season added 1 interception on 204 attempts, a sharp improvement in ball security compared to the 9 interceptions on 370 attempts in 2023, though fumbles remain a factor: 4 fumbles and 3 lost in 2025, and 6.7 fumbles per year over the three-season window.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 370 | 227 | 2562 | 16 | 9 | 124 | 657 | 4 | 10 | 239.2 |
| 2024 | 161 | 106 | 1106 | 5 | 1 | 62 | 289 | 5 | 6 | 120.1 |
| 2025 | 204 | 128 | 1259 | 7 | 1 | 71 | 383 | 4 | 4 | 133.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 245 | 153.7 | 1642.3 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 85.7 | 443 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 169.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The p10 is 0.0 points, meaning in the worst 10 percent of simulated seasons Fields scores nothing in fantasy. The p25 is 17.0 points and the median simulated season lands at 29.8 points. The upside scenarios are more interesting: the p75 is 91.8 points and the p90 reaches 153.4 points. That gap between the median and the 75th percentile is substantial, and it reflects how binary his role can be. A season in which he sees consistent volume looks very different from one in which he does not. Drafters should treat the 71.5 point estimate as a ceiling-weighted number, not a floor.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Fields is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to plan around. He is a free agent in most drafts, available off the waiver wire or as a final-round flier. At QB35 and #905 overall in Tier 9, the projection sits below replacement level, so the calculus is simple: he costs nothing, and the p90 outcome of 153.4 points is real upside for a handcuff or a streaming option. His bye is Week 5, which is worth noting for roster management. Grab him only if you have the roster space and want a dual-threat dart throw with a wide outcome band.
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Questions drafters ask
His projection of 71.5 points and a draft value of -189.0 put him below replacement level at QB35 and #905 overall in Tier 9. He is not being drafted consistently enough to carry a market ADP, so in most formats he costs no pick at all. The case for him is purely as a free roster addition with a wide outcome band.
Over the three seasons from 2023 to 2025, Fields averaged 85.7 rush attempts, 443 rush yards, and 4.3 rush touchdowns per year. His peak was 2023: 124 rush attempts, 657 rush yards, and 4 rush touchdowns on the ground. The 2025 season produced 71 rush attempts, 383 rush yards, and 4 rush touchdowns, so the rushing contribution has been consistent even when passing volume has varied.
The p10 simulated outcome is 0.0 fantasy points and the median is 29.8, so the downside is severe. The upside is genuine: the p75 is 91.8 points and the p90 reaches 153.4 points. The band is wide enough that a drafter should not count on the point estimate of 71.5 as a likely outcome in either direction.
In 2023 he threw 9 interceptions on 370 attempts and lost 4 fumbles. By 2025 he threw 1 interception on 204 attempts and lost 3 fumbles. The three-year average is 3.7 interceptions and 6.7 fumbles per year, so the interception rate has trended down sharply, though fumbles remain a recurring part of his profile.
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Beyond the rankings
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Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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