#75 overall · NE · 128.4 projected half-PPR pts · +0.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 61.1
TreVeyon Henderson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
TreVeyon Henderson's 2025 season is the only meaningful data point in his three-year aggregate, and it reads cleanly: 180 rush attempts, 911 rush yards, and 9 rushing touchdowns, with 35 receptions on 42 targets for 221 receiving yards and a receiving score. That is a full-season workload with genuine touchdown production. The receiving usage matters in half-PPR formats, and 42 targets signals a role in the passing game, not just a change-of-pace function. Nine rushing touchdowns on 180 carries is a strong touchdown rate, and that kind of red-zone efficiency is repeatable enough to anchor a late-round RB roster spot.
What the model projects
The projection is 128.4 half-PPR fantasy points. Henderson sits at #75 overall and RB29, with a draft value of +0.0, placing him exactly at replacement level for his position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is in Tier 9. The median simulated season lands at 133.3 points, close to the point estimate. His bye week is Week 11.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 180 | 911 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 221 | 1 | 1 | 188.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 180 | 911 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 221 | 1 | 1 | 190.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 44.7 points, a near-total bust. The 25th percentile is 83.6 points, a disappointing but not catastrophic season. The median sits at 133.3 points. The 75th percentile reaches 179.0 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons come in at 219.6 points or better. That spread from 44.7 to 219.6 is substantial. Henderson is not a safe floor play; he is a high-variance RB whose upside is real but whose downside is steep. Drafters who roster him need to plan for the full range.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Henderson going at pick 61.1, which translates to the 6th round, 1st pick in a 12-team draft (6.01), based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #75 overall and RB29. At his current draft cost, he is a late-round RB who can be targeted as a depth piece or a handcuff-adjacent option depending on how your roster builds in the earlier rounds. His Week 11 bye is worth noting when constructing your schedule. Given the wide outcome band, pairing him with a safer floor at the position earlier in the draft is a reasonable approach before committing to Henderson in the sixth.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 180 times for 911 yards and 9 rushing touchdowns, caught 35 of 42 targets for 221 receiving yards, and added 1 receiving touchdown. He also lost 1 fumble on the season.
The projection is 128.4 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #75 overall and RB29, sits in Tier 9, and carries a draft value of exactly +0.0, meaning he projects right at replacement level for the position.
The band runs from 44.7 points at the 10th percentile to 219.6 at the 90th percentile. The 25th percentile is 83.6 points, so a bad-but-not-worst season still falls well short of the 128.4 projection. Henderson carries meaningful bust risk alongside his upside.
Market ADP puts him at pick 61.1, or 6.01 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. If you want him, that is roughly when you need to spend the pick.
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Beyond the rankings
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