#77 overall · SF · 115.6 projected half-PPR pts · -0.1 Draft Value
George Kittle — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
George Kittle has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons, pulling in 65 catches for 1,020 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2023, then 78 catches for 1,106 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2024. His three-year averages tell a consistent story: 66.7 receptions, 918 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns per season. That touchdown rate is the kind of floor that keeps a tight end relevant even in a down year. The 2025 season produced a reduced stat line, 57 catches, 628 yards, and 7 touchdowns on 69 targets, but the scoring efficiency held. Kittle sits at TE6 in a position where reliable production is scarce, and his track record of volume and end-zone work gives him a credible claim on a roster spot in any format.
What the model projects
The projection is 122.3 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draft value sits at exactly +0.0, meaning the projection lands right at replacement level for the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is ranked #76 overall and TE6. Tier 9 is his assigned group. His bye week is Week 8.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 90 | 65 | 1020 | 6 | 170.7 |
| 2024 | 94 | 78 | 1106 | 8 | 197.6 |
| 2025 | 69 | 57 | 628 | 7 | 133.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 84.3 | 66.7 | 918 | 7 | 167.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 67.2 points, a figure consistent with a year like 2025 where targets and yardage were compressed. The 25th percentile sits at 97.5 points. The median simulated season lands at 132.8 points, above the point estimate of 122.3. The 75th percentile reaches 155.2 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 182.7 points, a ceiling that reflects what Kittle has shown he can do when targets and touchdowns align. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is more than 115 points, so the outcome here is genuinely variable. A drafter buying in is betting on the upper half of that band.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 83.4, which works out to pick 7.11 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you will need to spend to secure him. His overall rank is #76, and he is TE6 in the position rankings. Plan your tight end strategy around Round 7 if Kittle is your target; waiting longer risks losing him before your next turn.
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Questions drafters ask
His three-year averages show genuine consistency in touchdowns (7 per season) and receptions (66.7 per season), but the simulated season band runs from 67.2 points at the 10th percentile to 182.7 at the 90th. That is a wide spread. The median outcome at 132.8 points supports a TE1 role, but the downside is real, as the 2025 stat line demonstrates.
Market ADP puts him at pick 83.4, which is Round 7, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. If he is your target, that is the window to act.
His 2025 receiving yards (628) and targets (69) were well below his 2023 (1,020 yards, 90 targets) and 2024 (1,106 yards, 94 targets) totals. His touchdown production held at 7, matching his three-year average, but the volume metrics were down noticeably.
He is TE6 by draft value in 12-team half-PPR, ranked #76 overall, and placed in Tier 9. His draft value of +0.0 means the projection sits right at replacement level for the position.
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Beyond the rankings
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