#98 overall · KC · 113.4 projected half-PPR pts · -8.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 114.5
Travis Kelce — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Travis Kelce's three-year averages tell a consistent story: 120.7 targets, 88.7 receptions, 886 receiving yards, and 4.3 receiving touchdowns per season from 2023 through 2025. That target volume is real and durable. In 2024 he drew 133 targets, the highest single-season figure across the three-year window, and followed it in 2025 with 108 targets, 76 receptions, 851 yards, and 5 touchdowns. The touchdown rate ticked back up in 2025 after a dip in 2024, and the reception total in 2024 (97) remains the three-year high. The floor here is a high-volume tight end who consistently sees the ball in a productive offense. His bye falls in Week 5, which is early enough to manage without significant roster stress.
What the model projects
The projection is 113.4 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. The median simulated season lands at 123.9 points, above the point estimate, which reflects the shape of the outcome distribution. The draft value is -8.9, placing Kelce at TE9 and #98 overall in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That is the headline number, and it matters for how you allocate draft capital.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 121 | 93 | 984 | 5 | 1 | 172.9 |
| 2024 | 133 | 97 | 823 | 3 | 2 | 146.9 |
| 2025 | 108 | 76 | 851 | 5 | 1 | 153.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 120.7 | 88.7 | 886 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 158.8 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10% of simulated seasons produce 58.2 points or fewer. The 25th percentile sits at 88.5 points. The median is 123.9 points. The 75th percentile reaches 146.4 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons come in at 173.8 points or above. That is a spread of roughly 115 points between the p10 and p90, which signals meaningful season-to-season variance. The upside case, if the top of the band materializes, is a genuinely useful fantasy contributor. The downside case, at the bottom of the band, is a season that falls well short of replacement value. Both outcomes are live possibilities built into the numbers.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is placing Kelce at pick 114.5 on average, which works out to the 7th pick of Round 10 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him. The model has him at #98 overall and TE9 in Tier 9, with a draft value of -8.9. Going into a draft, the key question is whether you want to commit a Round 10 pick to a tight end projecting below replacement level, or whether you prefer to let the position sort itself out later. His target volume and touchdown upside are real, but the projection and draft value are what they are. Draft him if you want the ceiling; understand the floor before you do.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 113.4 points with a draft value of -8.9, which puts him below replacement level at tight end in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks TE9 and #98 overall in Tier 9. His three-year average of 120.7 targets and 4.3 receiving touchdowns per season shows the volume is real, but the projection reflects where the numbers currently sit. The upside band reaches 173.8 points at the 90th percentile, so the ceiling is meaningful if things break right.
Over the 2023-2025 seasons he averaged 120.7 targets, 88.7 receptions, 886 receiving yards, and 4.3 receiving touchdowns per year. His target totals were 121 in 2023, 133 in 2024, and 108 in 2025. Receiving yards were 984, 823, and 851 across those three seasons. Touchdowns were 5, 3, and 5. The volume has remained high even as yardage has trended down from the 2023 peak.
The market ADP is 114.5, which translates to the 7th pick of Round 10 in a 12-team draft. That is the average pick being spent on him across two platforms. If you want him, that is roughly when you need to commit.
The simulated outcome band runs from 58.2 points at the 10th percentile to 173.8 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 123.9 points. The 25th percentile is 88.5 and the 75th is 146.4. That is a wide spread, meaning both a disappointing season and a strong one are genuinely plausible outcomes.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.