#70 overall · TEN · 129.8 projected half-PPR pts · +2.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 72.3
Tony Pollard — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tony Pollard has cleared 1,000 rushing yards in each of the last three seasons: 1,005 in 2023, 1,079 in 2024, and 1,082 in 2025. That is a level of volume consistency that is hard to dismiss. Over that same stretch he has averaged 251.3 rush attempts and 55 targets per season, confirming a role that extends into the passing game. The three-year averages tell a clean story: a back who sees the ball roughly 306 times a season between carries and targets, logs around 1,307 combined scrimmage yards, and contributes five-plus touchdowns. For a drafter looking for a floor at the position, that workload history is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 129.8 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That puts Pollard at #70 overall and RB29, sitting in Tier 8. His draft value is +2.0, meaning the projection lands just above replacement level for the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 134.9 points, a touch above the point estimate. His bye week is Week 9.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 252 | 1005 | 6 | 67 | 55 | 311 | 3 | 193.1 |
| 2024 | 260 | 1079 | 5 | 57 | 41 | 238 | 2 | 178.2 |
| 2025 | 242 | 1082 | 5 | 41 | 33 | 206 | 4 | 169.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 251.3 | 1055.3 | 5.3 | 55 | 43 | 251.7 | 3 | 184.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 45.5 points, a number that reflects how badly a season at this position can go. The 25th percentile is 84.8 points. The median sits at 134.9. Move up to the 75th percentile and the number is 180.7; the top 10% of simulated seasons reach 221.4 points. That is a spread of roughly 176 points between the p10 and p90, which signals meaningful variance. The fumble history adds context to the downside: Pollard has fumbled three times per season on average over the last three years, losing one in 2023, two in 2024, and three in 2025. A season where those fumbles cost him touches would push outcomes toward the lower end of the band. A season where the touchdowns tick up and the receiving work holds would push toward the upper end.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Pollard at pick 72.3 on average, which works out to the 6.12 slot in a 12-team snake draft. That figure is drawn from two platforms, so treat it as a directional read rather than a settled consensus. The model has him at #70 overall and RB29. If you want him, the sixth round is where you will need to spend the pick. His Tier 8 placement means there is no urgency to reach, but drafters who wait past that range are likely to find him gone. At his bye in Week 9, plan your roster accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
Yes. He has hit 1,000 rushing yards in each of the past three seasons: 1,005 in 2023, 1,079 in 2024, and 1,082 in 2025, with a three-year average of 1,055.3 yards on 251.3 attempts per season.
His receiving work has declined each year. He caught 55 passes on 67 targets in 2023, 41 on 57 in 2024, and 33 on 41 in 2025. The three-year averages are 43 receptions, 55 targets, and 251.7 receiving yards per season.
The p10 outcome is 45.5 half-PPR points, meaning 10% of simulated seasons end that low. Pollard has also averaged three fumbles per season over the last three years, losing one, two, and three respectively in 2023, 2024, and 2025. That fumble trend is the clearest risk factor in the profile.
The market average is pick 72.3, which translates to the 6.12 slot in a 12-team draft. That figure comes from two platforms. If you want Pollard, the sixth round is the window to target him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.