#349 overall · LAR · 34.9 projected half-PPR pts · -80.9 Draft Value
Terrance Ferguson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Terrance Ferguson is a Los Angeles Rams tight end with a 2025 season that represents the entirety of his three-year statistical record: 25 targets, 11 receptions, 231 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. The touchdown rate relative to his target volume is the one number that stands out. Three scores on 25 targets is a meaningful conversion rate, and it is the foundation of whatever upside case exists here. For a drafter hunting late-round depth or a streaming option at a thin position, that touchdown efficiency is the thread worth pulling.
What the model projects
The projection is 34.4 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. Ferguson ranks #318 overall and TE51, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -88.1, which places him below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the headline number; the median simulated season, at 29.3 points, runs slightly below it. Ferguson has a Week 11 bye.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25 | 11 | 231 | 3 | 46.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 25 | 11 | 231 | 3 | 46.6 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide relative to the projection, which reflects genuine season-to-season variance at this level of the position. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 2.6 points. The 25th percentile is 11.8 points. The median sits at 29.3 points. The 75th percentile reaches 52.7 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finishes at 81.0 points. That p90 figure is more than double the projection, meaning the upside tail is real even if the central expectation is modest. The downside tail is equally real: a large share of simulated seasons produce near-zero fantasy value.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Ferguson does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In practice, he is available as a free agent or a final-round flier in most drafts. At a -88.1 draft value and a TE51 rank, he belongs at the back end of a roster as a speculative add, not as a planned starter. The touchdown upside visible in his 2025 line is the only reason to carry him, and that reason is thin enough that roster construction should not depend on it.
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Questions drafters ask
His projection is 34.4 points and his draft value is -88.1, placing him below replacement level at TE51 and #318 overall in Tier 9. He has no market ADP, meaning most drafts do not claim him at all. He is a speculative depth option, not a planned starter.
His three-year aggregate and his 2025 season are identical: 25 targets, 11 receptions, 231 receiving yards, 3 receiving touchdowns, and 1 rush attempt. All of his recorded production comes from 2025.
The p90 outcome across simulated seasons is 81.0 half-PPR points, more than double the 34.4-point projection. That upside is driven largely by his touchdown conversion rate from 2025, but it represents only the top 10% of simulated outcomes.
Very volatile. The band runs from 2.6 points at the p10 to 81.0 at the p90, a spread of 78.4 points around a 34.4-point projection. The p25 is just 11.8 points, meaning a quarter of simulated seasons produce near-irrelevant fantasy totals.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.